Soda Ash Weekly: High production and weak demand, rigid demand purchases dominate the market (20250417 issue)

01 Industry News This Week

《Yaopi Glass Announces Plan for Private Placement, Drives High-Quality Development with New Productivity, Leads Industry Transformation and Upgrading》

Glass is gradually upgrading from traditional auxiliary materials to main materials, providing core material support for emerging fields such as photovoltaic building integration (BIPV) and flexible thin-film modules. Relying on deep technical accumulation and rich customer reserves, the company accurately captures the market opportunities brought by the iteration of thin-film battery technology, accelerates the layout of TCO glass production capacity, and improves the aesthetics of products by optimizing the coating process, improving the uniformity and color performance of the film layer. The company's products will be further deeply integrated into the new generation of photovoltaic technology systems such as perovskite and cadmium telluride.

In response to the trend of intelligent new energy vehicles and electronic cockpits, the company has developed anti-reflection coating technology to better adapt to high-value-added scenes such as on-board displays, skylight glass, and side rear gears, realizing the "low reflection + high privacy" function, solving the problems of screen glare and privacy protection in the car under strong light conditions, effectively reducing driver visual fatigue, and improving driving safety and comfort. Automotive anti-reflective coated glass has unique advantages in the automotive glass market, which is more in line with the future development trend of the automotive industry, and provides strong support for the company to continue to maintain its core competitiveness in the field of automotive glass.

This private placement is a comprehensive upgrade of the new quality productivity system - realizing a leap in manufacturing efficiency through intelligent transformation, reducing unit energy consumption through green technology, and opening up high value-added market space through product innovation. Standing at the historical node of industrial transformation, the company integrates new quality productivity into the production gene of every inch of glass. From photovoltaic new energy to smart travel, from green buildings to high-end manufacturing, the company is providing more valuable solutions to global customers through technological breakthroughs and strategic layout. In the future, the company will continue to drive change with innovation and write more possibilities on the new journey of high-quality development.

《Chongqing Housing and Urban-Rural Development Commission issued a major document! "Power generation glass" will be standard for green buildings in 2025!" 》

Recently, the Chongqing Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Committee issued the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in Green Building and Energy Conservation in the City in 2025". Focusing on the "dual carbon" goal, it puts forward clear requirements in terms of technology application, standard improvement, and industrial collaboration, and points out the direction for the development of green buildings in Chongqing:

1. Comprehensively promote building photovoltaic integration (BIPV)

New public buildings, industrial plants and existing building renovation projects must give priority to photovoltaic power generation technology, requiring the city's new building photovoltaic installed capacity to exceed 50 megawatts in 2025. Cadmium telluride power generation glass has both power generation functions and building material properties. It can directly replace traditional curtain walls and roof materials to achieve "buildings as power stations", which is the best solution in the BIPV field. Its weak light power generation characteristics (suitable for Chongqing's cloudy and foggy climate) can maximize the power generation efficiency of the building surface and help achieve the installation target.

2. Strengthen the application of green building materials

Encourage the use of low-carbon and recyclable building materials, and include high-performance energy-saving products such as cadmium telluride power generation glass in the "Recommended Catalog of Chongqing Green Building Materials". The energy consumption of cadmium telluride power generation glass production is only 1/3 of that of traditional crystalline silicon components, and there is no heavy metal pollution. The carbon emissions of the whole life cycle are reduced by more than 60%, which meets the low-carbon standards of green building materials. After being selected into the catalog, it will be given priority in government procurement and market-oriented projects.

3. Create a benchmark for demonstration projects

Focus on supporting a number of "near-zero energy consumption buildings" and "solar storage and direct flexible" demonstration projects to promote the large-scale and standardized development of green buildings.

02 Soda ash market analysis

2.1. Soda ash market analysis

This week, the domestic soda ash market maintained a weak and stable state, and the prices in some regions were adjusted narrowly. As of Thursday this week, the price of light soda ash was 1250-1600 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash was 1350-1550 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the overall operating rate of the soda ash industry remained high this week. The soda ash unit of Tianjin Soda Plant was under maintenance, and the current operating rate dropped to about 50%. Kunlun Soda Industry's production returned to normal, and other companies' operations were temporarily stable. The market supply was sufficient this week. In terms of demand, the demand side continued to be weak, and the weak recovery of the terminal industry led to the emergence of inventory pressure for enterprises, and the destocking speed was slower than expected. Affected by this, the trading atmosphere in the downstream market was light, and the procurement strategy of enterprises tended to be conservative, mostly adopting the mode of replenishing inventory with small orders and just-in-time demand, and the overall circulation rhythm of the market slowed down.

In terms of futures, the overall price of soda ash futures fluctuated weakly during the week. The market faced the problem of the main force shifting positions to the far month. The near-month price basically fluctuated around the spot delivery cost range. The new main force 09 contract also operated weakly based on the weak expectation problem. However, given that the 09 contract is in the maintenance season, the absolute price is not high, and the market still has certain support. In addition, there are still major factory maintenance plans in May, downstream stocking during the May Day holiday, and policy expectations of important meetings at the end of the month cannot be falsified. The market has not yet formed an excessive negative feedback market. In the short term, the market may maintain low-level fluctuations and wait for the above expected logic to be realized.

Forecast for the future market:

1. The activity of the soda ash market is suppressed, and the trading atmosphere continues to be light.

2. The soda ash market will continue to maintain a pattern of oversupply, and it is difficult to have a significant increase in volume in the short term.

3. The price of soda ash may continue to fluctuate weakly, and the market transactions are still dominated by low-price rigid demand.

2.2. Comparison of soda ash market prices

03 Statistics of soda ash process profit this week

3.1. Soda ash process profit situation

As of April 17 this week, the profit of the soda ash process was 155.00 yuan/ton, down 9.50 yuan/ton from last week; the profit of the ammonia soda process was -61.00 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton from last week. The cost-end price was adjusted narrowly during the week, the price of raw salt fell, the price of coke moved up slightly, and the profit of enterprises eased slightly from the previous week.

3.2. Trend of soda ash production profit

04 Maintenance and start-up of soda ash enterprise equipment this week

4.1. List of soda ash enterprise equipment situation

4.2. Statistics of soda ash enterprise operation rate during the week

The soda ash industry started about 89.30% this week, an increase of 1.48% from last week. According to incomplete statistics, the output of soda ash manufacturers this week was about 756,000 tons, an increase of 2.16% from last week.

05 Statistics of soda ash inventory this week

This week, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.72 million tons, and last week it was about 1.695 million tons, an increase of 25,000 tons month-on-month, a rate of 1.47%.

06 Analysis of upstream and downstream products of soda ash

6.1. Comparison of spot prices of raw salt this week

This week, the domestic raw salt market price of sea salt has been reduced. As of Thursday this week, the mainstream ex-factory price of domestic sea salt remained at 230-390 yuan/ton, the mainstream ex-factory price of well salt was 240-340 yuan/ton, and the mainstream ex-factory price of lake salt was 210-230 yuan/ton. Due to the early entry of sea salt in the Lubei Salt Area into the spring season, it is expected to gradually enter the market at the end of the month, and the market supply will increase; while the main bidding price of sea salt in Shandong Province has been reduced recently, and downstream chlor-alkali enterprises are affected by cost pressure, and there are many price pressures, and the price of raw salt enterprises is weak and downward; the well salt in Shandong Province is affected by the reduction in sea salt prices, and the prices of enterprises are suppressed and reduced. The production cost pressure of salt factories is high, and the prices of enterprises are mostly on the edge of the cost line. Some mineral salt equipment in the southwest region has begun maintenance, supply has decreased, and prices are expected to remain stable in the short term; the supply, demand and prices of salt factories in other regions are also basically stable, and the market fluctuates narrowly in some regions.

6.2. Analysis of float glass market this week

This week, the domestic 5mm float glass market as a whole maintained a stable and strong market. Among them, the overall production and sales of Shahe enterprises weakened compared with the previous period, the market trading was general, the price was flexible, and the prices of some manufacturers in Beijing, Tianjin and Tangshan increased slightly. The East China market is mainly stable, and demand has not improved. In addition, low prices from the outside continue to flow in, and local enterprises are limited in shipments. The price of some brands in Guizhou and Sichuan in the southwest has moved up, which has little impact on the change of the center of gravity of the local mainstream price. At present, the local negotiations in Yunnan and Guizhou are 58-60 yuan/heavy box, and some in Guizhou are slightly lower at 56 yuan/heavy box. Other regions continue to ship mainly at stable prices, and the market wait-and-see mentality is gradually strong. The shipments of some enterprises have slowed down compared with the previous period, and there are differences in shipments. Downstream procurement is relatively cautious, and just-in-time replenishment is maintained. Overall, the float glass market is still in a state of supply and demand game this week. There has been little change in the supply and demand side recently. The market is in a wait-and-see mentality. In the absence of news stimulation, companies are mainly focused on shipping and destocking, and the shipping situation varies from region to region. Downstream stocks are stocked up on dips, and purchases maintain rigid demand. In the short term, the market still needs to pay attention to the digestion of downstream demand, and it is expected that the float glass market may fluctuate in a narrow range.

In terms of futures, the price of glass futures is generally fluctuating downward during the week. Although the current glass spot market is still in the seasonal demand repair period, the actual follow-up situation has gradually weakened, spot production and sales continue to decline, and upstream quotations have gradually moved down. As the main force of the futures market shifts positions and changes months, the near-month contract basically fluctuates around the spot low-price delivery range, and the long-month contract also has a premium phenomenon under the premise of weak demand expectations. In the short term, the price of glass futures continues to be weak. In the future, we can pay attention to whether the policy can give a repair expectation.