This Week's Industry News

catalogue

Table of Contents 1 1

I. This Week's Industry News 2 2

II. Sodium Carbonate Market Analysis 2 2

2.1. Sodium Carbonate Market Analysis 2 2

2.2 Comparison of Pure Soda Market Prices 3 3

III. Maintenance and Operational Status of Soda Ash Plants This Week 3 3

3.1 Overview Table of Soda Ash Production Facilities 3 3

3.2 Statistics on the operating rate of soda ash enterprises during the week 3 3

IV. This Week's Soda Ash Inventory Statistics 4 4

V. This Week's Profit Statistics for the Soda Ash Production Process 4 4

5.1 Profit Situation of the Soda Ash Production Process 4 4

5.2 Profit Trends in Soda Ash Production 5 5

VI. Analysis of Upstream and Downstream Products of Soda Ash 5 5

6.1 Market Analysis of Float Glass This Week 5 5

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1、This Week's Industry News

U.S. media report that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has virtually come to a halt.

On July 8 local time, CNN reported that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had virtually come to a halt amid uncertain prospects for the U.S.-Iran 60-day ceasefire agreement.

Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at energy research firm Rystad Energy, stated in a report that day that transportation flows appeared to have completely stalled. He noted this better reflects the current market perception of risks than any statements from Washington or Tehran. The report emphasized that reopening the Strait of Hormuz is a key requirement for the United States, as the strait is vital to global energy markets; prior to the U.S.-Iran conflict, about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies were transported through it. With uncertainty surrounding a full reopening of the strait growing, global oil prices surged sharply on Wednesday.

(Source: Securities Times Online)

II. Sodium Carbonate Market Analysis

2.1. Soda ash market analysis: Supply-demand mismatch and lack of favorable support for soda ash supply

The domestic soda ash market has maintained a weak yet stable performance this week. As of Thursday, the prevailing price range for light soda ash stood at 880–1570 yuan/ton, while that for heavy soda ash was 880–1420 yuan/ton. On the supply side, industry operations experienced both maintenance shutdowns and resumption of production; previously shut-down facilities gradually resumed operations, while some manufacturers temporarily halted production, resulting in a modest increase in overall output and ample market supply. Demand remained sluggish as downstream buyers showed limited acceptance of high-priced raw materials and insufficient purchasing interest, with few new orders being placed. Industry inventories continued to accumulate during the week, leading some producers to lower their pricing amid high stock levels. Overall, the market lacks substantial positive drivers, and the fundamental supply-demand imbalance persists. The soda ash market is expected to maintain its weak stability in the short term, with close monitoring required of facility restart progress, inventory reduction rates, and signs of recovery in glass end-user demand.

This week, soda ash futures continued their downward trend, with the main contract hitting a new low since listing. The primary constraint remains the fundamental supply-demand imbalance: supply-side maintenance has led to limited output cuts while industry capacity utilization remains high; meanwhile, downstream glass manufacturers have cut production due to losses, reducing essential raw material procurement demand. This supply-demand mismatch has created an unresolved inventory overhang, becoming the most significant bearish factor in the market. Overall, no clear trend reversal signals have emerged yet; further developments will depend on marginal changes in supply-demand dynamics or signs of capacity reduction.

Future Market Forecast:

1、There are few companies providing subsequent maintenance services, ensuring ample industry supply.

2、The oversupply situation in the soda ash market remains unchanged, with inventory levels under pressure.

3、Soda ash prices are likely to remain weak, with market transactions still dominated by low-priced essential demand.

2.2 Comparison of Market Prices for Soda Ash

III. Maintenance and Operational Status of Soda Ash Plants This Week

3.1 Overview Table of Sodium Carbonate Production Facilities

3.2 Statistics on the operating rates of soda ash enterprises during the week

This week, the soda ash industry's operating rate reached approximately 79.29%, up 1.68% from the previous week. According to incomplete statistics, manufacturers produced around 755,200 tons of soda ash during the week, representing a 1.68% increase compared to last week.

IV. This Week's Sodium Carbonate Inventory Statistics

This week, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers reached 1.747 million tons, up from approximately 1.73 million tons last week, representing a month-on-month increase of 17,000 tons (0.98%).

V. Profit Statistics for the Soda Ash Production Process This Week

5.1 Profit Situation of the Soda Ash Production Process

As of July 9 this week, the profit margin for the combined alkali process was-15.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous period; whereas that for the ammonia-alkali process was-104.60 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.8 yuan/ton.

5.2 Profit Trends in Soda Ash Production

VI. Analysis of Upstream and Downstream Products of Soda Ash

6.1 Market Analysis of Float Glass This Week

This week, China's 5mm float glass market remained generally weak and in consolidation. The North China market showed divergent trends: while large-sized glass panels in the Shahe region saw multiple minor price increases, prices for smaller panels declined, with transactions predominantly occurring at low levels. In Central China, persistent inventory pressures prompted some manufacturers to lower prices by 20 yuan per ton mid-week to boost sales. South China faced disrupted shipments due to rainfall and approaching typhoons, leading certain companies to offer discounts on existing stock. East China and Southwest China maintained stable pricing strategies, with manufacturers flexibly adjusting orders based on inventory levels. Inventory data revealed modest weekly increases across most regions—North China, East China, Central China, South China, and Northeast China—all experiencing slight rises primarily due to limited downstream processing orders, insufficient end-user restocking demand, and transportation disruptions caused by rainfall. The Northwest region stood out as the only area with declining inventory, driven by cross-regional relocation efforts by major producers. Overall, float glass production remains stable with supply at relatively low levels, yet no significant improvement in demand has emerged. Processing enterprises maintain cautious procurement attitudes, resulting in moderate market activity. Short-term expectations suggest continued weakness in the market, with companies focusing on flexible order fulfillment; close attention will be needed to monitor macroeconomic policy shifts and the pace of end-user demand recovery.

This week, glass futures have exhibited a weak downward trend, with the core issue lying in persistently weak supply-demand fundamentals: social inventories remain at high year-on-year levels, supply-side cold repairs are limited, while end-demand is hampered by the off-season and rainy season, lacking substantial growth; thus, the weak equilibrium pattern remains difficult to break. In terms of cost support, a significant decline in upstream soda ash prices has further reduced glass production costs. Overall, short-term glass futures are likely to continue experiencing weak fluctuations at low levels. A sustained upward trend will depend on larger-scale cold repairs, demand recovery, or the implementation of strong policy measures; otherwise, there remains a risk of further price declines.