Soda Ash Industry Monthly Report

I. Industry News This Month

The Optical New Materials Production Base of Nanbo Group has been established in the Xianning High-Tech Zone.

Recently, Xianning High-tech Zone and China's China Glass Group held a signing ceremony for investment cooperation, marking the official establishment of China Glass Group's optical new materials production base in Xianning. This is the fourth major industrial project invested by China Glass Group in Xianning High-tech Zone, following the completion and commissioning of three key projects—Xianning China Glass Glass, China Glass Energy Conservation, and China Glass Optoelectronics—and serves as strong evidence of the group's deepening commitment and increased investment in Xianning.

It is reported that China Nanbo Group is a large listed enterprise with core competitiveness and significant influence in China's glass industry. The project signed this time, Hubei Nanbo Optical Technology Co., Ltd., is located in the third phase of Xianning High-tech Zone, focusing on establishing a large-scale production base for optical new materials while simultaneously creating an innovation hub for functional new materials, advanced processes, and cutting-edge equipment. It primarily involves products such as UTG ultra-thin flexible glass. Upon completion, it will become a key production and R&D center for optical new materials in Central China under China Nanbo Group, contributing substantially to the industrial development, economic growth, and technological innovation of Xianning City.

Liu Honggang, President of the Electronic Glass Division of China National Glass Group, stated that this project collaboration will not only inject strong momentum into the high-quality development of Xianning's local economy but also help China National Glass Group pioneer new horizons in the field of optical new materials and continue writing a glorious chapter for the industry. The project lead for the Nanbo Optical Project provided a detailed introduction to the overall planning, construction layout, and development prospects of this collaborative initiative.

A relevant official from Xianning High-tech Zone stated that the signing of this project represents not only a key strategic move in China's national industrial layout for the China National Glass Group, but also a significant strategic opportunity for Xianning City to promote industrial transformation and upgrading as well as foster new growth drivers. It will provide strong support and impetus for enhancing the quality and upgrading of Xianning's new materials industry and optimizing its industrial structure. Xianning High-tech Zone will offer the best business environment, comprehensive supporting services, and robust safeguard measures to fully support the project's advancement, striving to ensure its early commencement, completion, commissioning, and realization of tangible benefits.

II. Sodium Carbonate Market Analysis

2.1. This Month's Sodium Carbonate Market Analysis: Rising Costs Are Compacting Profits; Both Futures and Spot Prices Have Reached Bottom Levels

In June, China's 5mm soda ash market maintained a generally stable yet weak performance with downward pressure on prices, lacking any clear trend reversal. On the supply side, industry operating rates remained moderately high throughout the month as previously shut-down facilities gradually resumed production with limited planned maintenance. Although individual companies like Tianjin Alkali Industry and Southern Alkali Industry implemented short-term shutdowns or production cuts, overall maintenance efforts were minimal, ensuring sustained ample supply and persistent supply-side pressure. Demand remained sluggish as downstream enterprises faced operational challenges, adopting cautious procurement strategies with strong resistance to high-cost raw materials. They primarily purchased as needed, replenished inventories only when prices fell, and showed no intention for concentrated stockpiling. New orders were scarce, with only the lithium carbonate sector providing slight support for light soda ash, failing to reverse the overall downturn. Inventory levels saw temporary declines mid-month due to essential demand but reached 1.7324 million tons by month-end – still at historically high levels that continue exerting strong price pressure. Cost structures remained challenging: raw salt prices stabilized after initial increases, driving modest production cost hikes; by-product ammonium chloride prices weakened; profits per ton from the combined alkali process narrowed; and losses in the ammonia-alkali method expanded. Despite low overall profitability, cost pressures failed to translate into significant price adjustments, limiting further price reductions while maintaining a weak price stability. In summary, the supply-demand imbalance dominated the soda ash market in June, compounded by high inventories, weak demand, and abundant supply, with no substantial market drivers emerging. While rising costs have squeezed corporate profits, soda ash prices continue to trade in a weak range amid favorable fundamentals. Short-term price performance is expected to remain under pressure, with key factors including downstream inventory restocking activities and fluctuations in futures market sentiment warranting close attention.

The soda ash futures market in June exhibited a general trend of one-sided decline and weak fluctuations at low levels, with the price center of gravity shifting downward week by week. The core issue lay in the continued deterioration of supply-demand fundamentals. Although factors such as stronger glass futures prices and crude oil rebounds provided temporary support for futures prices during the month, these rallies lacked sustainability due to the prevailing supply surplus and weak demand, repeatedly showing patterns of rising followed by declines. By month-end, prices had fallen below most production cost levels, with cost support becoming evident and limiting further downside potential; however, the industry lacked substantial positive drivers, leaving the market trapped in a stalemate amid conflicting bullish and bearish pressures. Overall, soda ash prices demonstrated limited rebound potential and experienced volatile bottoming out driven by fundamental factors in June, with short-term weakness unlikely to reverse, and a turning point requiring either supply-side adjustments or favorable policy developments.

Post-July Market Forecast:

1、Few enterprises will undergo maintenance next month, while industry production remains at high levels.

2、Downstream float glass production lines are expected to reduce water supply, potentially leading to a decline in demand.

3、The market is characterized by strong wait-and-see sentiment and insufficient purchasing enthusiasm.

2.2 Comparison of soda ash market prices this month

2.3 Market Trend of Sodium Carbonate Prices

According to calculations by Boduo Data, as of June 26, the domestic light soda ash price index stood at 1,142.86, down 15.71 points (-1.36%) from the beginning of the month; the heavy soda ash price index was 1,217.14, down 4.29 points (-0.35%). Market sentiment remained weak throughout the month, with the soda ash price index continuing its downward trend.

III. Summary of Maintenance Activities at Soda Ash Plants This Month

IV. Import/Export Volume, Production Output, and Operating Rate of Soda Ash in May

4.1 Analysis of soda ash imports in May

According to customs data, China imported 16,700 tons of soda ash in May 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 1,033.76% and a month-on-month increase of 222.61%. From January to May 2026, the cumulative import volume of soda ash reached approximately 112,200 tons, up 602.4% year-on-year, with an additional increase of about 96,200 tons. The top three countries for soda ash imports in May were Turkey, Japan, and China, accounting for 97.13%,2.57%, and 0.14% of the total imports, respectively.

4.2 Analysis of soda ash export volumes in May

In May 2026, China exported 263,000 tons of soda ash, a year-on-year increase of 44.73% but a month-on-month decrease of 2.68%. From January to May 2026, the cumulative export volume of soda ash reached 1,189,500 tons, up 42.34% year-on-year, with an increase of approximately 353,800 tons in export volume. The top three countries for soda ash exports in May were India, Vietnam, and Nigeria, accounting for 21%,13%, and 13% of the total export volume, respectively.

4.3 Analysis of soda ash production in May

In May 2026, China's soda ash production reached 3.482 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.98% and a month-on-month rise of 0.35%. From January to May 2026, the domestic soda ash output totaled 17.323 million tons, up 4.35% from the same period last year's 16.601 million tons, with an additional production increase of approximately 722,000 tons.

4.4 Statistics on the operating rate of soda ash enterprises

In May 2026, the operating rate of soda ash plants was approximately 79.86%, down 2.99% month-on-month, due to concentrated maintenance activities among market participants and a slight decline in utilization rates.

V. Analysis of Apparent Soda Ash Consumption

In May 2026, China's apparent consumption of soda ash reached 3.2357 million tons, up 8.37% year-on-year and 0.96% month-on-month. From January to May, the cumulative apparent consumption totaled 16.2458 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 464,300 tons (2.94%).

VI. Inventory Status of Soda Ash Enterprises

As of June 26, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers stood at 1.7324 million tons, up approximately 14,600 tons (0.85%) from the beginning of the month. Manufacturer inventories have continued to accumulate, with sales efforts facing challenges; persistently high inventory levels are further depressing market sentiment.

VII. Analysis of Upstream and Downstream Products of Soda Ash

7.1 Trends in Spot Prices of Float Glass

In June, China's 5mm float glass market exhibited a weak and volatile trend, with monthly price declines ranging from 10 to 40 yuan per ton across regions. Weak demand and high inventory levels remained the primary challenges throughout the month. On the supply side, although production capacity saw localized reductions initially, three new production lines were commissioned in late June, restoring supply pressure and ensuring ample industry stock levels. Enterprises primarily focused on reducing inventory through sales. Demand continued to weaken: real estate project completions failed to meet expectations, downstream processors faced insufficient orders, and factors like the Dragon Boat Festival holiday and persistent rainfall further dampened end-user demand. Midstream and downstream players maintained only sporadic purchases for essential needs amid widespread caution. Inventory pressures persisted throughout the month; while some areas in North, East, and South China experienced minor decreases, overall reduction progress remained sluggish—with only Southwest China showing slight inventory declines by month-end, while all other regions recorded month-on-month increases, indicating sustained high inventory levels. Overall, the float glass market showed no substantial improvement in fundamentals during June, lacking effective demand support. The rainy season exacerbated storage and sales pressures, while price promotions proved ineffective, prompting market participants to remain cautious. Short-term trends are expected to remain weak and volatile, with certain regions likely continuing to rely on price cuts to address high inventory levels. Future attention should focus on the pace of end-user demand recovery and cost dynamics.