The market price of soda ash has generally declined.

The market price of soda ash has generally declined.

Soda Ash Market Analysis

The domestic soda ash market experienced weak fluctuations today, with prices generally declining. As of now, the mainstream price for light soda ash in North China remains at 1,170–1,260 yuan/ton, while that for heavy soda ash ranges from 1,250 to 1,320 yuan/ton; in East China, the price for light soda ash is 1,110–1,570 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price for heavy soda ash stands at 1,220–1,320 yuan/ton. On the supply side, Lianyungang Alkali Industry has suspended operations for maintenance, while other soda ash plants have maintained stable production levels; downstream demand shows no signs of improvement, with purchases primarily driven by actual needs, and only a few enterprises have replenished inventories moderately during low-price periods, reflecting a widespread wait-and-see attitude in the market.

Soda ash index analysis

According to calculations by Boduo Data, the light soda ash price index stood at 1,125.71 on June 29, down 14.29 points (−1.25%) from the previous working day; the heavy soda ash price index was 1,197.14, down 17.14 points (−1.41%) from the previous working day.

Futures Updates

According to data from Bodo Data, the main soda ash contract SA2609 opened at 1,096 yuan per ton on June 29 and closed at 1,103 yuan per ton, registering a daily gain of 0.09%. The price reached an intraday high of 1,107 yuan per ton and a low of 1,088 yuan per ton, with total open interest standing at 1,498,432 lots—a decrease of 4,423 lots month-on-month.

Today, soda ash futures tested a low during trading before experiencing a slight rebound, but the overall weak fundamental landscape remains unchanged. High inventory pressure in the industry persists, with slow destocking progress among enterprises coupled with continuously weakening profitability; producers using both the ammonia-soda process and the combined soda process are all operating at a loss. Although the relatively low market valuation provides some support to prices and limits further declines, given the backdrop of overcapacity and sluggish downstream demand, soda ash prices are likely to remain weakly low in the short term.

Future Market Forecast

In the short term, the market is expected to remain in a narrow range of consolidation. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the pace of inventory reduction and the recovery of end-user demand for glass products.