Glass Weekly: The market is stable but strong, but overall production and sales are weakening (20250417 issue)

01 Industry News of the Week

《Vog Optoelectronics Chengdu AMOLED Project Successfully Lays the Foundation, Adding a New Map to the Glass-based Industry》

On the morning of April 9, with the first shovel of gold sand, Jiangxi Vog Optoelectronics Group's AMOLED display glass-based photolithography finishing project was officially laid in Chengdu Hi-tech Zone. This future display intelligent manufacturing base with a total investment of more than 628 million yuan is not only a key move in Vog Optoelectronics' national strategic layout, but also marks that my country's AMOLED display industry chain core technology research has entered a new stage. Leaders from relevant units such as the Chengdu Hi-tech Zone Electronic Information Industry Bureau, Chengdu Hi-tech West Zone Development and Construction Command, BOE Group's 8.6th Generation AMOLED Production Line Chengdu Company, China Electronics System Engineering Second Construction Co., Ltd., Jiangxi Vog Optoelectronics Group, and upstream and downstream supply chain partners, industry experts, and media workers witnessed this milestone moment together.

As the core direction of global display technology iteration, AMOLED is accelerating its penetration into trillion-level markets such as smartphones, laptops, and in-vehicle displays with its high contrast, flexible and foldable characteristics. Voge Optoelectronics has chosen the "Land of Abundance" as its location to build a 77,000 square meter industrial base in the core area of ​​the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle, aiming directly at the industry ceiling of AMOLED glass substrate finishing technology.

《Yaopi Glass: Planned additional capital raising of no more than 300 million yuan for product structure optimization and upgrading》

Yaopi Glass (600819) disclosed the 2025 plan to issue A-shares to specific objects on the evening of April 11, and plans to issue A-shares to specific objects to raise no more than 300 million yuan, which will be used for the energy-saving upgrade of Dalian Yaopi melting furnace and float glass production line automation transformation project, Tianjin Yaopi production line energy-saving upgrade and coating process transformation project and replenishment of working capital.

《Development Trend of Glass Substrates in Emerging Fields》

Glass substrates are thin glass sheets with extremely flat surfaces, and are one of the key basic materials in the flat panel display industry and semiconductor packaging fields.

Glass substrates show great potential and application prospects in display technology, semiconductor packaging, new energy vehicles and other innovative fields. With the continuous advancement of technology and the increase in market demand, glass substrates are expected to become one of the key materials in these fields in the next few years.

Display field: Glass substrates are an ideal choice for MicroLED and MiniLED display technologies due to their excellent mechanical properties and thermal stability. For example, Leman Optoelectronics has achieved small-scale trial production of PM-driven glass-based Micro LED display panels, and Longli Technology is also reserving glass substrate technology for backlight display modules of Mini LED and Micro LED.

Advanced packaging: Glass substrates are increasingly used in semiconductor packaging, especially for packaging of large-size AI computing chips. Samsung Electronics is accelerating the development of the next-generation packaging material "glass interposer" to replace the current expensive silicon interposer and further improve chip performance. TGV (Through Glass Via) technology is to form tiny conductive vias on the glass substrate to achieve efficient connection between chips. Tongge Micro has made a breakthrough in TGV technology, which can achieve a minimum aperture of 3 microns, an aspect ratio of up to 150:1, support stacking of more than 4 layers of glass substrates, and adapt to high-density interconnection application scenarios.

Optical equipment: Glass substrates are also widely used in optical equipment, such as for the manufacture of high-precision optical lenses and display modules. The lenses and lens raw materials produced by Mingyue Lens Co., Ltd. are widely used in optical equipment and electronic products. 3. The layout of some A-share listed companies in the field of glass substrates.

02 Analysis of float glass market

2.1. Analysis of float glass market

This week, the domestic 5mm float glass market maintained a stable and strong market. Among them, the overall production and sales of Shahe enterprises weakened compared with the previous period, the market trading was general, the price was flexible, and the prices of some manufacturers in Beijing, Tianjin and Tangshan increased slightly. The East China market is mainly stable, and the demand has not improved. In addition, the low prices from the outside continue to flow in, and the shipments of local enterprises are limited. The price of some brands in Guizhou and Sichuan in the southwest has moved up, which has little impact on the change of the center of gravity of the local mainstream price. At present, the local negotiations in Yunnan and Guizhou are 58-60 yuan/heavy box, and some in Guizhou are slightly lower at 56 yuan/heavy box. Other regions continue to ship mainly at stable prices, and the market wait-and-see mentality is gradually strong. The shipments of some enterprises have slowed down compared with the previous period, and there are differences in shipments. Downstream procurement is relatively cautious, and just-in-time replenishment is maintained. Overall, the float glass market is still in a state of supply and demand game this week. There has been little change in the supply and demand side recently. The market is in a wait-and-see mentality. In the absence of news stimulation, companies are mainly focused on shipping and destocking, and the shipping situation varies from region to region. Downstream stocks are stocked at low prices, and purchases are maintained for rigid demand. In the short term, the market still needs to pay attention to the digestion of downstream demand, and it is expected that the float glass market may fluctuate in a narrow range.

In terms of futures, the price of glass futures during the week was mainly oscillating downward. Although the current glass spot market is still in the seasonal demand repair period, the actual follow-up situation has gradually weakened, spot production and sales continue to decline, and upstream quotations have gradually moved down. As the main force of the futures market shifts positions and changes months, the near-month contract basically fluctuates around the spot low-price delivery range, and the long-month contract also has a premium phenomenon under the premise of weak demand expectations. In the short term, the price of glass futures continues to be weak. In the future, we can pay attention to whether the policy can give a repair expectation.

2.2. Comparison of float glass market prices

03 Statistics of float glass production profits this week

3.1. Profits of float glass production

As of April 17 this week, the average weekly profit of float glass fueled by petroleum coke was -4.06 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous month; the average weekly profit of float glass fueled by natural gas was -166.85 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.28 yuan/ton from the previous month; the average weekly profit of float glass fueled by coal-to-gas was 128.69 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.41 yuan/ton from the previous month. Glass profits rebounded slightly during the week, and profits recovered steadily.

3.2. Trends in float glass production profits

04 Changes in float glass enterprise equipment maintenance and production this week

4.1. Dynamics and start-up of float glass enterprise equipment 

This week, the weekly start-up rate of float glass was 75.66%, an increase of 0.24% from the previous month. Some equipment resumed production and ignited this week, and the industry's start-up rebounded slightly.

4.2. Weekly output of float glass enterprises

After eliminating the zombie production lines, there are 297 domestic glass production lines this week, of which 224 are in production, and the output of float glass is 1.1093 million tons, which is flat month-on-month, and the output remains stable during the week.

05 Statistics of float glass inventory this week

This week, the total inventory of float glass manufacturers is 65.078 million weight boxes, and 65.203 million weight boxes last week, a decrease of 12.5 weight boxes from the previous month, a decrease of 0.19%; the shipment situation in various regions of China is different, and the overall shipment in some regions is still good. The middle and lower reaches purchase and replenishment, and the inventory of production enterprises has decreased slightly, leading to a slight destocking of the industry as a whole.

06 Analysis of upstream and downstream industries of float glass

6.1. Analysis of soda ash market this week

This week, the domestic soda ash market maintained a weak and stable state, and the price in some regions was adjusted narrowly. As of Thursday this week, the price of light soda ash was 1050-1650 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash was 1050-1650 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the overall operating rate of the soda ash industry remained high this week. The soda ash unit of Tianjin Soda Plant was under maintenance, and the current operating rate dropped to about 50%. Kunlun Soda Industry's production returned to normal, and other companies' operations were temporarily stable. The market supply was relatively sufficient this week. On the demand side, the demand side continued to be weak, and the weak recovery of the terminal industry led to the emergence of corporate inventory pressure, and the destocking speed was slower than expected. Affected by this, the trading atmosphere in the downstream market was light, and corporate procurement strategies tended to be conservative. They mostly adopted a small-order just-in-time replenishment model, and the overall market circulation rhythm slowed down.

6.2. Real estate industry data statistics

In January-February 2025, the national real estate construction area reached 605972350 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.14% and a month-on-month decrease of 17.36%; the construction side continued to shrink, reflecting the cautious attitude of real estate companies towards the market, and the overall construction progress slowed down. During the same period, the area of ​​completed real estate projects was 87.6421 million square meters, down 15.69% year-on-year and 65.75% month-on-month. The pace of completion slowed down significantly, mainly due to the slow progress of previous projects and financial pressure.

After the "two sessions", the policy side continued to release positive news, including a reduction in mortgage interest rates, relaxation of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities, and tax relief. The three measures will effectively reduce the cost of buying houses for rigid needs and promote the recovery of market activity. At the same time, the renovation of old communities is accelerating and 6 million affordable housing units are entering the market. The government further optimizes the market structure under the dual track of "stabilizing housing prices and protecting people's livelihood". In the short term, the real estate market is still in the bottoming adjustment stage, and the recovery process on the demand side still needs to be observed. The key to the future trend of the industry depends on the continued efforts of policies and the restoration of confidence in buying houses. Whether the market can stabilize still needs to pay attention to policy implementation and market feedback.