Glass Weekly: Limited market drive, slightly declining transaction atmosphere (20250102 issue)

01 Industry News This Week
"The first high-end automotive glass in Anhui Province rolled off the production line in Bengbu"
On the morning of December 28, the first glass roll-off ceremony of Anhui Wuyao's annual production of 4 million sets of automotive glass was held in Bengbu, Anhui, marking the end of Anhui's history of being a major automobile province without automotive glass production.

According to an interview with People's Daily Anhui Channel, Anhui Wuyao's annual production of 4 million sets of automotive glass project is divided into two phases. The first phase invested 500 million yuan to build and renovate about 150,000 square meters of factory buildings and supporting facilities to implement the project, purchase and install automotive glass processing and production equipment and public supporting facilities, and build 6 automotive glass production lines including laminated front windshield and roof production lines, door glass production lines, corner window production lines, and rear windshield production, forming an annual production capacity of 1 million sets of automotive glass. The second phase invested 1.5 billion yuan to form an annual production capacity of 3 million sets of automotive glass. At present, the first phase of the project is progressing smoothly. At this stage, 9 corner window injection molding machines, door glass and other equipment have been purchased. An intelligent production line representing the advanced level of the glass manufacturing industry has been deployed, with a total investment of over 100 million yuan. The products have been equipped with Hefei BYD, Chery and other automakers, and the sales revenue has exceeded 22 million yuan, achieving the start of construction, production and compliance in the same year. At the same time, the front windshield production line, corner window production line and rear windshield production line with a total investment of over 150 million yuan will be in place by the end of September 2025, and a full set of glass production capacity for new energy vehicles will be formed by then. In addition, the second door glass production line and the second front windshield production line will be expanded and completed by the end of May 2026, and Anhui Wuyao's production capacity will be further improved and released. According to relevant persons in charge of Bengbu City, Anhui Wuyao is Wuyao Glass's largest automotive glass production base in China. After it is fully completed and put into production, its scale will surpass that of the Wuhan headquarters and become an important strategic fulcrum for radiating the Yangtze River Delta market. It will inject new and greater momentum into enhancing Wuyao's brand value, helping Bengbu build an automotive parts industry cluster, and promoting the high-quality development of Anhui's new energy vehicle industry.

"Millions of Folds Open a New World of Glass"

Glass, which has a history of thousands of years, is extremely thin and flexible, and is reborn after being folded millions of times. Not long ago, the world's first three-fold mobile phone was released. Its screen is attached with a layer of 30 microns of glass, which is less than one-third of an A4 paper in thickness. It is currently the thinnest industrialized foldable glass. How is it made? Can it be thinner? A pen dropped from a height of 1.5 meters onto the glass, and no cracks can be found under a microscope. This is because the 30-micron flexible foldable glass has undergone hundreds of thousands of pen tip experiments during the research and development process. This thin and flexible glass is used on the mobile phone screen to cope with bumps during use. The three-fold mobile phone uses 30-micron flexible foldable glass, which can be folded 1 million times without breaking, which is equivalent to us using it continuously for 27 years, with complete independent intellectual property rights.

Peng Shou is the president of the China Building Material Glass New Materials Research Institute, and has been dealing with glass all his life. Glass is one of the most common industrial products. It can be inlaid on doors and windows, and can be made into tableware and cups. Common means a wide range of application scenarios, and also means cheap. As early as more than 30 years ago, Peng Shou and his colleagues realized this. At that time, the traditional glass industry had become a sunset industry with no hope. How to break this dilemma, Peng Shou led the team to investigate and explore, and finally decided to follow the path of "enterprise, marketization, engineering, and internationalization". The Glass Design Institute decided to go out of Bengbu and Anhui, and more than 100 backbones came to Shanghai to establish China Building Materials International Engineering Group Co., Ltd. An engineering service platform going international, it mainly promotes the scientific and technological achievements developed by our research institute, high-quality float glass, glass engineering, new energy engineering and other projects to the whole country and the world. So far, our market share in global glass engineering technology services has reached more than 65%, and last year's sales revenue was about 15 billion, which was 250 times that when we came to Shanghai in 2000. If the Shanghai company is the tentacles for Peng Shou and his team to perceive the international frontier, then the China Building Materials Glass New Materials Research Institute in Bengbu is the engine of doubling. Here, scientists decided to move to the high end and tackle the ultra-thin glass used for display screens.

General Secretary Xi Jinping said that how many times can we fight in life, and how to fight? One is to plan and layout. We must lead the world in future electronics, future energy, future space, and future life and health glass. We must build more pilot platforms in our future industries and climb one peak after another, so that we can truly walk in the center of the world stage in the world's leading position.

"Major breakthrough! The world's first 8.6-generation OLED glass substrate successfully rolled off the production line"
On December 29, the world's first 8.6-generation OLED glass substrate product independently developed and produced by China Building Materials Glass New Materials Research Institute and Bengbu Zhongguang Optoelectronics was successfully rolled off the production line in Bengbu, Anhui, creating a new era of "Made in China" for high-generation OLED glass substrates.

With the support of the "Key Technology Development of OLED Display Glass Materials" project of the "14th Five-Year Plan" National Key R&D Program, the project team carried out basic research on the structure and performance design of OLED display glass materials, calculation and simulation of key thermal processes, and independently developed a complete set of core technology equipment, and put into production the world's first 8.6-generation OLED ultra-thin float glass substrate with complete intellectual property rights, successfully opening the world's 8.6-generation OLED glass substrate technology and product precedent, which is of great significance for my country to achieve independent control of the OLED display industry chain and lead the high-quality development of the new display industry. OLED display has the advantages of self-luminescence, ultra-high contrast, wide viewing angle, and wide color gamut. It is a new generation of mainstream display technology. Samsung in South Korea, BOE in China, Visionox and other leading display companies have successively started the construction of 8.6-generation OLED panel production lines.

02 Float glass market analysis

2.1. Float glass market analysis 

This week, the overall domestic float glass market price showed a weak trend, with an adjustment range of -60 to 10 yuan/ton. Specifically, the price of 5mm large slabs in Northeast China dropped significantly, down 60 Yuan/ton to 1,200 Yuan/ton. Manufacturers were under great pressure to ship goods, and the market trading atmosphere was sluggish. Prices in Southwest, East China and South China all fell by 10 Yuan/ton. The market transaction was flat, and there was no obvious improvement in terminal demand. Manufacturers' inventories were slightly reduced under rigid demand purchases. Prices in North China dropped by 40 Yuan/ton to 1,270 Yuan/ton, and the prices in Beijing, Tianjin and Tangshan simultaneously dropped to 1,260 Yuan/ton, showing an overall trend of high production and low sales. Prices of 5mm large and small slabs in Shahe area both fell, down 24 Yuan/ton and 20 Yuan/ton respectively, and the pace of manufacturers' shipments slowed down. Prices in Northwest China rose slightly by 10 Yuan/ton to 1,300 Yuan/ton against the trend. The market was relatively stable, and production and sales fell slightly month-on-month. Other regions were in a state of supply and demand game, and prices remained stable for the time being. Overall, the market price of float glass generally declined this week, and the terminal demand is still weak. The downstream mainly purchases on demand, and the willingness to stock up is low; although the prices in some regions fluctuate slightly, the overall market sentiment is cautious. Affected by logistics, manufacturers adopt flexible quotation strategies to promote shipments, and prices will still face certain downward pressure in the short term.

In terms of futures, the price of glass futures this week is mainly weak and volatile. The main logic is that the market warehouse receipt pressure is strong, and the actual demand in the short term is difficult to undertake the mid- and upper-stream inventory, which has a certain suppression on the futures price premium. Moreover, most manufacturers maintain price cuts to clear inventory before the New Year, and there is no new strong expectation logic for the time being. It is difficult for the market to give a rebound drive. In the short term, it may maintain a weak trend, waiting for the subsequent macro policy market or the short-term demand improvement market before the New Year.

2.2. Comparison of float glass market prices

03 Statistics of float glass production profits this week

3.1. Profits of float glass production 

As of January 2, the profit of petroleum coke as fuel was 146.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.3 yuan/ton from the previous month; the profit of natural gas as fuel was -110.15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.65 yuan/ton from the previous month; the profit of coal as fuel was 102.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.25 yuan/ton from the previous month; the profit of glass fluctuated during the week, the downstream demand for replenishment was general, and the production and sales in some regions were weak.

3.2. Trend of float glass production profits

04 Dynamics of float glass enterprise equipment and output changes this week
4.1. Dynamics of float glass enterprise equipment and operation status
This week, the weekly operation rate of float glass was 77.35%, a decrease of 0.54% from the previous month. During the week, some float glass production lines were switched, and the operation rate decreased slightly compared with last week.

4.2. Weekly output of float glass enterprises
This week, after eliminating zombie production lines, there were a total of 294 domestic glass production lines, of which 227 were in production, and the output of float glass was 1.1115 million tons, a decrease of 0.60% month-on-month. The output decreased during the week, down 6,700 tons from last week.

05 Statistics of float glass inventory this week
This week, the total inventory of float glass manufacturers was 44.195 million weight boxes, compared with 45.225 million weight boxes last week, a decrease of 1.03 million weight boxes from the previous month, a decrease of -2.33%; most manufacturers had good production and sales during the week, and downstream demand was acceptable, and the overall inventory declined month-on-month.

06 Analysis of the upstream and downstream industries of float glass
6.1. Analysis of the soda ash market this week
This week, the domestic soda ash market was generally stable but weak. As of Thursday this week, the mainstream price of light soda ash remained at 1,500-1,700 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash was 1,600-1,900 yuan/ton. Recently, the supply of soda ash market has rebounded, and some equipment maintenance has gradually resumed operation. Although some enterprises are still in a state of parking and reduction, the overall start-up has increased; supported by the end-of-month replenishment and pre-holiday reserves, the shipment volume in some areas has increased, and some enterprises have good shipments, but the overall shipment has dropped significantly month-on-month; the market is in a wait-and-see mood after the New Year's Day holiday, and the signing of new orders by some enterprises is average. Some enterprises choose to lower prices to promote transactions. Downstream demand is flat, mostly based on on-demand procurement, and the overall market trading atmosphere is relatively cautious. Overall, under the two-way adjustment of supply and demand, the price fluctuation of soda ash is limited, and the market may continue to be stable and weak in the short term.

6.2. Real estate industry data statistics

In November 2024, the construction area of ​​houses of real estate development enterprises nationwide reached 53.542 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 14.11% and a year-on-year decrease of 36.64%; the completed area of ​​houses was 61.5685 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 18.87%, of which the completed area of ​​commercial housing was 44.9496 million square meters. The newly started real estate construction area reached 60.8107 million square meters, and new home sales achieved positive growth. Overall, the activity of real estate transactions increased significantly in November, indicating that the real estate market has further stabilized. Driven by various policies, the market has seen more positive changes, confidence has been boosted, and the momentum for stopping the decline and stabilizing has continued to increase. The subsequent market trend is expected to continue to improve.