Soda Ash Weekly: The imbalance between market supply and demand has intensified, and prices continue to fall (20250411 issue)

01 Industry News of the Week

《Ignition of Brown Glass Tube Production Line of Shandong Guotai Min'an Glass》
On the morning of April 7, the kiln ignition ceremony of the brown glass tube production line of Guotai Min'an Glass Technology Co., Ltd. in Dongping Economic Development Zone was held. Zheng Hui, deputy secretary of the county party committee, Qu Kezhi, secretary of the Party Working Committee and director of the Management Committee of the County Economic Development Zone, and Li Jianli, secretary of the Party Leadership Group and director of the County Industry and Information Technology Bureau, attended the ceremony. Members of the company's leadership team and some employee representatives participated in the event.

It is understood that brown pharmaceutical glass tubes are mainly used for packaging photosensitive drugs, with good physical and chemical properties, strong UV shielding ability, and long drug storage time. After the production line is put into production, it will meet the market demand for high-quality packaging materials in the biopharmaceutical field, further improve the company's pharmaceutical glass product structure, effectively enhance market competitiveness, and inject new momentum into the company's high-quality development.

Next, Dongping Economic Development Zone will take this ignition ceremony as an opportunity to continuously optimize the business environment, provide precise services to enterprises in all directions and at multiple levels, continuously increase support for high-tech industries, attract more high-quality projects to land, promote industrial agglomeration and development, and strive to create a strong engine for high-quality economic development, injecting surging power into the county's economic development.

《Vog Optoelectronics Chengdu AMOLED Project Successfully Lays the Foundation, Glass-based Industry Adds New Map》

Fifteen years of technological accumulation, creating the leader of the "Glass-based Revolution"

Starting from Xinyu to radiating the whole country, Vog Optoelectronics' technological breakthrough is a microcosm of China's display industry's independent innovation. From the first photoelectric glass processing and production line in 2010, to 2016, China's first In-Cell anti-interference high-resistance coating product mass production, and then to the Dasheng G9 display released by Hisense in 2025, the world's first display product based on Vog glass-based Mini LED backlight mass production, all the way to witness Vog's innovation and advancement in the field of glass-based technology.

The establishment of Chengdu Vog AMOLED Special Base will focus on the selective pattern etching process of AMOLED glass substrate. Compared with the traditional LCD thinning technology, this process can integrate the three major processes of thinning, through-hole and cutting, which will help partners significantly improve the competitiveness of high-generation OLED product performance and cost.

So far, Vog has officially completed the strategic positioning of the senior supply chain role of LCD, Mini/Micro LED and AMOLED three-generation display technology. As industry experts said: "Vog's continued cultivation in the field of glass substrates is reconstructing the value chain division of the display industry."

02 Soda ash market analysis

2.1. Soda ash market analysis

This week, some prices in the domestic soda ash spot market continued to decline. As of Thursday this week, the price of light soda ash was 1350-1550 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash was 1450-1600 yuan/ton; this week, the pressure on soda ash plants to ship goods is still relatively large, and the transaction of new orders is not good. There is panic in some parts of the market, and low-priced goods continue to increase; the soda ash plants in Hunan area resumed production after maintenance, and there are more soda ash plants in the north that reduce the volume and load. The overall market operation is still high, and the inventory pressure is also large; due to the sluggish soda ash market, the downstream market's purchasing attitude is still relatively cautious, and the enthusiasm for taking goods is not high. Replenishment is mainly based on rigid demand. The price of soda ash in some areas has fallen, and the market lacks positive sentiment support, and the price continues to run weakly.

In terms of futures, the overall price of soda ash futures weakened significantly during the week, mainly due to the panic selling and plunge of global assets caused by the continued fermentation of Trump's reciprocal tariffs during the Qingming Festival. After the opening of the domestic market, the overall price followed the downward trend. Although soda ash itself is a domestic demand product and is relatively limited in the direct impact of tariff issues, the risk aversion behavior of funds caused by market panic still caused large fluctuations. In addition, the fundamentals of soda ash itself are still weak. The main contract is approaching delivery. It is difficult for the demand side to take over the mid- and upper-stream inventories. The basis is strong and the spot supply hits the market in the later period, resulting in short-term negative feedback in the futures and spot markets. The price is temporarily fluctuated after being pressed down to the futures and spot flat water range of about 1320.

Forecast for the future market:

1. The supply of soda ash is loose, and there are no many new maintenance companies in the short term, and the supply and demand tilt may intensify;

2. Downstream demand is still weak, and it is difficult to support the inventory of alkali plants;

3. The soda ash market is still under pressure, and prices are expected to continue to decline in a narrow range.

2.2. Comparison of soda ash market prices

03 Statistics of soda ash process profit this week

3.1. Soda ash process profit situation

As of April 10 this week, the profit of the soda ash process was 184.00 yuan/ton, down 27.5 yuan/ton from last week; the profit of the ammonia soda process was -101.00 yuan/ton, down 48.8 yuan/ton from last week. The cost-end price was slightly adjusted downward during the week, the soda ash price fell, and the company's profit fell again.

3.2. Soda ash production profit trend

04 This week's soda ash enterprise equipment maintenance and start-up situation

4.1. List of soda ash enterprise equipment situation

4.2. Statistics of soda ash enterprise operation rate during the week

This week, the soda ash industry started about 88.00%, an increase of 3.53% from last week. According to incomplete statistics, the output of soda ash manufacturers this week was about 740,000 tons, an increase of 4.23% from last week.

05 Statistics of soda ash inventory this week

This week, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.695 million tons, which is about 1.70 million tons last week, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous month, a decrease of -0.29%.

06 Analysis of upstream and downstream products of soda ash

6.1. Comparison of spot prices of raw salt this week

This week, the domestic raw salt market is temporarily stable, and some transaction prices are low. As of Thursday this week, the mainstream ex-factory price of domestic sea salt remained at 240-390 yuan/ton, the mainstream ex-factory price of well salt was 250-340 yuan/ton, and the mainstream ex-factory price of lake salt was 210-230 yuan/ton. This week, the price of sea salt for chlor-alkali in some areas is low. With the consumption of previous inventory, sea salt in some areas has entered the spring harvest ahead of schedule. The supply is expected to increase at the end of the month. Most areas in Shandong still have raw salt inventory, and most companies are mainly destocking, so the transaction price is low. The price of well salt is basically stable during the week, and the market changes are not large. Salt mines in the southwest region have begun to enter maintenance, supply has shrunk, and the ex-factory quotation has increased slightly compared with the previous period. In the short term, the raw salt market has general transactions, supply and demand are basically stable, and prices are expected to continue to remain stable.

6.2. Analysis of the float glass market this week

This week, the domestic 5mm float glass market maintained a stable and rising trend. Among them, Shahe had good overall shipments, some manufacturers raised prices, and the market trading was still good. The central China market had good shipments today, and some companies raised prices, while most companies' prices were temporarily stable. Some companies in the northeast market continued to raise prices, and driven by the surrounding sentiment, some companies had higher shipments. The prices of some brands in Sichuan have moved up. In the early stage, in order to alleviate the pressure of white glass, there has been a phenomenon of switching to ultra-white and colored glass. Other regions are still mainly shipping at stable prices, with different shipments from companies. The demand margin has not improved, and the main demand is just for demand. Overall, the float glass market is still in a state of supply and demand game this week. There has been little change in the supply and demand side recently. Companies are mainly shipping to clear warehouses. Market prices in some regions have been raised one after another, and the transaction situation of manufacturers has improved. The shipment situation varies from region to region. The demand side is differentiated, and the downstream is cautious and wait-and-see, maintaining just for demand. In the short term, the market still needs to pay attention to the digestion of downstream demand, and it is expected that the float glass market may fluctuate in a narrow range.