Soda Ash Weekly: Supply and demand pattern has not improved and the market continues to decline (20250424 issue)

01 Industry News of the Week

《How do photovoltaic companies transform and upgrade? This "roundtable meeting" said so》

Recently, the 11th roundtable meeting of the China Photovoltaic Solar Energy High-Efficiency Heterojunction 760W+ Club was successfully held in Chengdu, Sichuan Province. Liansheng Photovoltaic Technology Co., Ltd. served as the rotating chairman of this meeting, which brought together representatives of 14 leading companies in the heterojunction field such as Jiangsu Guangshi Energy and Tongwei Group and some industry institutions to jointly discuss the breakthroughs in photovoltaic heterojunction technology and the path of industrial upgrading, and to draw up a new blueprint for the transformation of clean energy.

It is reported that this meeting focused on the frontier breakthroughs of heterojunction technology, innovative application scenarios and benchmark cases, and was committed to building an industrial chain collaborative innovation platform to promote upstream and downstream companies to share green development opportunities.

The meeting also conducted in-depth discussions on core issues such as heterojunction battery efficiency improvement, cost reduction path, equipment localization, and multi-scenario application. Experts at the meeting shared the latest technological achievements, including the research and development progress of 760W+ high-power modules, the exploration of the integration of heterojunction and perovskite stacking technology, and practical cases of innovative application scenarios such as BIPV (photovoltaic building integration) and offshore photovoltaics. The meeting pointed out that collaborative innovation in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain is the key to breaking through technical bottlenecks and reducing manufacturing costs. It is necessary to further strengthen in-depth cooperation in materials, equipment, processes and other links to build an efficient and open heterojunction industry ecosystem.

Through roundtable dialogues, special reports and other forms, this meeting has promoted a number of technical cooperation intentions, and proposed the establishment of a heterojunction technology collaborative innovation alliance to accelerate the transition from laboratory to industrialization. The participating companies unanimously stated that they will work together to overcome the difficulties in large-scale production of heterojunctions, promote the continuous decline in the cost of photovoltaic electricity, and help achieve the "dual carbon" goals.

《Fuyao Glass Earned More Than 2 Billion in Three Months and Expended 400 Million in R&D. Globalization of Production Capacity and Balanced Domestic and Foreign Elevated Risk Resistance》

On the evening of April 17, Fuyao Glass (600660.SH, 03606.HK) released its first quarter report for 2025. The company achieved operating income of nearly 10 billion yuan, an increase of more than 10% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to the parent company's shareholders (hereinafter referred to as "net profit attributable to the parent") exceeded 2 billion yuan, an increase of about 46% year-on-year.

In the first quarter of this year, the company's revenue and net profit both hit a record high. The company explained that the revenue grew rapidly, while the exchange gains increased year-on-year, continued R&D and innovation, product added value increased, and scale effect became more apparent.

According to the latest disclosed first quarter report, in the first three months of this year, Fuyao Glass achieved operating income of 9.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.16%; net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.25%; net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses (referred to as "net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses") was 1.987 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.90%. Compared with the same period in history, in the first quarter of this year, Fuyao Glass's revenue and net profit both hit new highs. Regarding the rapid growth of net profit attributable to the parent company, Fuyao Glass explained that the revenue grew rapidly, the quality and efficiency were improved, and the exchange gains increased year-on-year. In the first quarter of this year, the company's financial expenses were -350 million yuan, an increase of 407.25% compared with -69 million yuan in the same period last year. Among them, interest income was 205 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20 million yuan, and interest expenses were 88 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17 million yuan. Based on this, exchange gains have a greater impact on the company's financial expenses.

Fuyao Glass's R&D investment continues to grow, driving the company to conduct R&D innovation in line with market conditions. The official website shows that Fuyao Glass, as the world's largest automotive glass supplier, has long served international mainstream brands such as Bentley, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, and GM, with a global market share of about 34% and a Chinese market share of about 68%. However, with the acceleration of the industry's electrification and intelligent transformation, the new generation of consumers who pursue scenario-based intelligent experience have higher demands for standardized products. Traditional glass functions can no longer meet the upgrade needs of in-vehicle smart cockpits and immersive interactive scenes. Fuyao Glass has actively responded. Relying on its global market share advantage, the company is shifting from a single supply product to providing scenario solutions, and deeply integrating into the intelligent transformation of automobiles through innovative products such as HUD head-up display glass and intelligent dimming panoramic skylights.

At present, Fuyao Glass has completed its global industrial layout. In addition to its bases in China and the United States, the company has business organizations and design centers in Japan and South Korea, a European company in Germany, close contact with European automobile brands such as BMW, Audi, and Volkswagen, and a production base in Russia. In addition, the company also has production bases or business organizations in Slovakia, Hungary, Italy, the United Kingdom, Spain and other countries. The company has also established 10 design centers and 2 R&D centers in China, the United States, Germany and other countries.

Global production capacity layout and balanced growth at home and abroad enable Fuyao Glass to resist various risks.

02 Soda ash market analysis

2.1. Soda ash market analysis

This week, the domestic soda ash market maintained a weak consolidation, and local prices fell slightly. As of Thursday this week, the price of light soda ash was 1050-1620 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash was 1050-1600 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the overall operating rate of the soda ash industry remained high this week. The soda ash unit of Tianjin Soda Plant was under maintenance, and the current operating rate dropped to about 50%. The shutdown and maintenance of Southern Soda Industry is expected to last for 3 days. Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen Chemical has basically resumed, and the operation of other companies is temporarily stable. Inventories are still at a medium-high level this week. On the demand side, affected by the release of new production capacity and the sluggish willingness of downstream purchases, corporate inventories continue to accumulate. Some manufacturers have eased the pressure of shipments by making small concessions. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is light, and wait-and-see sentiment dominates. In the short term, the soda ash market lacks a clear upward driver, and the overall trend is weak. The maintenance expectations in May have increased, and it is necessary to pay close attention to the implementation of the industry maintenance plan and changes in the downstream demand side.

In terms of futures, the overall price of soda ash futures rebounded sharply after hitting the bottom during the week. The fundamentals of soda ash itself did not change much during the week. Under the pressure of weak expectations, the market hit a new low. However, the market subsequently heard that a large number of new maintenance plans would be added, especially the news that several high-cost ammonia and alkali enterprises would jointly overhaul and support prices, which caused a strong disturbance to the market. In addition, there was a certain pre-holiday stocking demand in the middle and downstream at the end of the month, and short-selling funds left the market for risk aversion, forming a large rebound. In the short term, market sentiment still supported prices before the supply disturbance expectation could not be falsified. However, for the time being, the logic of soda ash oversupply has not reversed. In the future, attention will be paid to the actual implementation of the maintenance and the extent to which the loss volume repaired the supply and demand gap. In addition, attention will be paid to whether the expected improvement in the policy end at the end of the month will drive the market to cooperate with the interpretation. If the market improvement expectation is insufficient, there will still be a problem of funds rushing to fall back.

Forecast for the future market:

1. Downstream purchasing demand is weak, and low-price transactions are the main ones.

2. Enterprise inventory continues to accumulate, and destocking still needs to rely on price reduction promotions or flexible order-taking strategies.

3. The soda ash market lacks a clear upward driving force, and the price is hovering in the bottom area.

2.2. Comparison of soda ash market prices

03 Statistics of soda ash process profits this week

3.1. Soda ash process profit situation

As of April 24 this week, the profit of the soda ash process was 260.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 95.5 yuan/ton from last week; the profit of the ammonia soda process was 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 97 yuan/ton from last week. The cost-end price was adjusted narrowly during the week, the price of raw salt fell narrowly, the price of anthracite fluctuated slightly, and the profit of enterprises eased slightly from the previous week.

3.2. Trend of soda ash production profit

04 Maintenance and start-up of soda ash enterprises this week

4.1. List of soda ash enterprises’ equipment situation

4.2. Statistics of soda ash enterprises’ start-up rate during the week

This week, the soda ash industry started about 88.50%, a decrease of 0.90% from last week. According to incomplete statistics, the output of soda ash manufacturers this week was about 750,000 tons, a decrease of 0.79% from last week.

05 Statistics of soda ash inventory this week

This week, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.685 million tons, and last week it was about 1.72 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons from the previous month, a decrease of -2.03%.

06 Analysis of upstream and downstream products of soda ash

6.1. Comparison of spot prices of raw salt this week

This week, the price of well salt in the domestic raw salt market has been reduced. As of Thursday this week, the mainstream ex-factory price of domestic sea salt remained at 230-390 yuan/ton, the mainstream ex-factory price of well salt was 230-320 yuan/ton, and the mainstream ex-factory price of lake salt was 210-230 yuan/ton. This week, the domestic raw salt market showed regional differentiation. The price of new orders of well salt in North China remained stable, but the cross-regional circulation volume was reduced, and the market was mainly digested locally. In the southwest region, the supply volume decreased due to the maintenance period of some mineral salt equipment, and the market expected an increase in prices in the later period. The price of mineral salt in Central China has dropped slightly compared with the previous period, mainly affected by regional supply and demand adjustments. The supply and demand of the lake salt market is balanced, and the price remains stable. In the future, we need to focus on the progress of maintenance in the southwest region and the changes in the circulation of the East China market.

6.2. Analysis of the float glass market this week

The domestic 5mm float glass market maintained a stable pattern as a whole this week. The overall transaction atmosphere in the North China market was light this week. The price of large-plate glass in Shahe was under pressure to decline. Some manufacturers slightly reduced their quotations by 20-30 yuan/ton. However, due to the relative balance of supply and demand for small-plate glass, some manufacturers tentatively raised the price by 10-20 yuan/ton. The inventory of manufacturers in Shahe showed a slight increase. The market performance in the southwest Yunnan and Guizhou regions has rebounded significantly this week, mainly benefiting from the positive impact of the contraction of production capacity in Yunnan. The maintenance of some production lines has led to a contraction in the supply side, and the circulation of goods in surrounding areas has been significantly accelerated. The overall operation of the East China market is stable, and most production enterprises maintain a stable production and sales rate of 80-90%. Some large enterprises maintain good shipments through flexible sales strategies. Other regions continue to focus on stable price shipments. The overall shipment situation is general. The downstream generally maintains a cautious attitude, and most orders show the characteristics of "small orders and short orders". Overall, the float glass market this week still showed a weak balance between supply and demand. From the demand side, the terminal rigid demand purchase remained stable, but the increase was limited; in terms of supply, the industry's short-term production capacity is expected to remain stable, and there is no large-scale cold repair or resumption plan; in terms of price strategy, most companies choose to wait and see. It is expected that the overall market will remain stable.

In terms of futures, the glass futures price was mainly fluctuating at a low level during the week. The overall atmosphere of the current glass market is low, mainly because the fundamental logic is weak and funds have significantly suppressed the profits of the market. However, as the futures price fell to the discount of Hubei spot, it temporarily lacked further downward pressure. With the rapid decline of the market in the early stage, the midstream shipments were relatively smooth, which released a certain amount of replenishment space in the midstream. Although the short-term glass futures price is still weak, it can be followed up to see whether the policy can give a repair expectation and thus give a premium space to stimulate speculative demand.

Source | Boduoduo Data Group

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