Soda Ash Weekly: Market supply rebounds slightly, weak demand drags down the market (20250327 issue)

01 Industry News of the Week

《Southern Alkali Industry Successfully Held 2025 Dock Wind and Flood Prevention Double Blind Drill》

On the afternoon of March 6, Southern Alkali Industry successfully carried out 2025 Dock Wind and Flood Prevention Double Blind Drill at the storage workshop dock and water intake post. The purpose of this drill is to implement the "Work Safety Law of the People's Republic of China" and other laws and regulations, enhance the company's emergency response capabilities to natural disasters such as typhoons and rainstorms, and protect the lives and property of the company's employees.

The drill was hosted by the storage workshop, co-organized by the Safety and Environmental Protection Department and the Production Technology Department, and the company's first person in charge of production safety and general manager Xia Youhui served as the commander-in-chief, the company's direct person in charge of production safety and deputy general manager Pan Zhimin served as the deputy commander-in-chief, and the deputy director of the storage workshop Zhang Yongjun served as the commander-in-chief. The company's relevant leaders and the main persons in charge of the department workshop observed and guided the whole process.

At the beginning of the drill, the dock foreman and the water supply foreman reported the on-site situation to the duty officer. The duty officer immediately ordered the dock crane, bridge crane and other large equipment to stop and anchor, and the personnel to evacuate to the safe area. At the same time, flood control boards were inserted at the door of the water intake pump room to prevent backflow. As the water level rose, the workshop emergency rescue team quickly blocked the flood with sandbags and started the submersible pump to pump water. The material supply team delivered emergency materials in a timely manner, and the emergency evacuation team evacuated the dock personnel in an orderly manner. When the flood exceeded the controllable range of the workshop, the company launched the second-level emergency response. The emergency command center quickly organized multiple groups to carry out comprehensive rescue. The teams cooperated tacitly to ensure the smooth progress of the drill. At the end of the drill, Xia Youhui made comments. He affirmed that the participants responded quickly and acted in an orderly manner in the double-blind situation without a drill plan, which reflected their familiarity with the emergency plan. The drill effectively tested the feasibility of the plan and improved the employees' emergency response capabilities. At the same time, he also pointed out the shortcomings of the drill, such as the poor condition of the on-site sound amplification equipment, the low volume, the impact on the efficiency and accuracy of information transmission, etc., and required relevant units to strengthen the preparation of emergency materials and personnel training, so that participants and observers can be familiar with the emergency process and the correct reporting method, so as to improve the efficiency of emergency response when disasters come.

This drill tested the company's emergency response capabilities to natural disasters and enhanced employees' awareness of disaster prevention and reduction. Next, Southern Alkali Industry will continue to strengthen emergency management, improve emergency plans, and make every effort to protect the lives and property of employees and reduce disaster losses.

《Sanyou Soda Ash is working hard to strive for early spring and anchoring the goal to fight together》

The spring tide is surging and the drums are forging ahead. In recent days, the company has closely followed the group's work deployment, facing the spring breeze, and moving forward with practical work. The company's cadres and employees have anchored their goals, forged ahead, worked together to ensure safety, increase revenue and reduce expenditure to increase efficiency, and promote the acceleration, quality and efficiency of various work. "How many steps are there to prepare for the centrifuge startup?" "8, confirm whether the operating environment is safe, check whether the pipelines, instruments, and valves are in standby status..." On the afternoon of March 18, at the pre-shift meeting of the chemical class A in the light ash workshop, the team leader Liu Shenggang was spot-checking the employees' understanding and mastery of job safety responsibilities. The employees listened carefully and answered fluently, and the safety operation specifications were kept in mind by everyone during the question-and-answer session.

Thoughts are the forerunner of actions. If you tighten your thoughts, you will "pull the bow" in action. The company makes full use of pre-shift and post-shift meetings, takes safety publicity and education as the starting point, and carries out various forms of safety publicity activities to guide the majority of employees to tighten the "ideological string" of safe production and build a solid safety barrier and ideological defense line. Safety is the premise and foundation of all work. The company combines production reality, strengthens on-site safety management, and grasps key risk control. As soon as spring comes, the Safety Management Department forms a professional inspection team to organize and carry out seasonal hidden danger inspections in spring. According to the principle of "inspection and rectification", the problems and hidden dangers found on the day are sorted out and analyzed, and a rectification ledger is established. So far, more than 20 hidden dangers have been rectified, and the hidden dangers have been effectively eliminated in the bud, laying a solid foundation for the company's safe production. Efficiency is the lifeblood of the survival of an enterprise. The company insists on "struggle" and "cultivation" to reduce costs and increase efficiency.

On March 17, in the yard of the forklift maintenance management center of the finished product workshop, employees were dismantling two scrapped forklifts, repairing or renovating the available exhaust pipes, lifting cylinders and other parts to make the best use of them. "Since the establishment of the company's forklift maintenance management center, employees have repaired more than 600 faulty forklifts, creating more than 120,000 yuan in benefits, and truly implemented cost reduction and efficiency increase to every detail." Liu Zhanxi, deputy director and engineer of the workshop vehicle, said. How to minimize the procurement cost of materials? The equipment department has improved the management system of repairing and reusing waste, organized various units to combine production reality, strengthen material management from the aspects of recycling and reuse, repairing and reusing waste, and carefully calculate to reduce production costs. All units have come up with real measures to further promote cost reduction activities, gather awareness, and strengthen benefits. The manufacturing and repair workshop independently completed the production of the two-water particle fluidized bed nozzle, saving 5,000 yuan in procurement costs; the electrical and instrumentation workshop independently repaired 40 regulating valves, motors and other equipment, creating 150,000 yuan in benefits; the emission reduction workshop employees strictly calculated the cost account, independently tackled the problem and completed the transformation of the cooling alkali tail gas system, saving 20,000 yuan in electricity costs...

The company has comprehensively improved the cost awareness of all employees. As of now, various units have recycled and repaired nearly 1,000 pieces of various waste materials, creating more than 1.3 million yuan in benefits. At the same time, we have carried out in-depth golden idea activities such as full-staff innovation and small reforms, and have effectively achieved the goal of reducing costs and increasing efficiency.

02 Soda ash market analysis

2.1. Soda ash market analysis

This week, the domestic soda ash market was generally weak, prices were under pressure and market transactions were lower than expected. As of Thursday this week, the mainstream price of light soda ash was 1,400-1,700 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash was 1,500-1,800 yuan/ton. The spot price in some regions fell further. From the supply side, the overall operation of soda ash plants is stable, and some companies have resumed production, and the market supply has increased slightly. Although some manufacturers have flexibly adjusted their operations, the overall supply remains at a high level, and the pressure on companies to ship goods remains. The demand side is still sluggish, and the purchasing sentiment of downstream industries is sluggish. They are still mainly replenishing stocks based on rigid needs, and the enthusiasm for stocking is limited; the demand for flat glass has not improved significantly, and the support for soda ash purchases is insufficient; the demand of other downstream industries has not increased significantly, new orders are slowly followed up, and the market trading atmosphere has cooled; overall, the imbalance between market supply and demand still exists, and buyers and sellers are in a wait-and-see mood. Spot transactions are mainly based on flexible negotiations, and some companies' quotations have loosened slightly. The soda ash market is still facing certain downward pressure.

In terms of futures, the price of soda ash futures rose and fell during the week, and the overall situation is still mainly in the bottom range. At present, the fundamentals of soda ash itself have not changed much, and there is no new hype point in the short term. The intraday trend mainly follows the downstream glass, but the supply and inventory pressure itself has a strong suppression on the market, and the rebound strength is relatively limited. However, the scale of downstream demand is still in a low recovery trend, and with the recent upward revision of glass prices, its ability to undertake raw materials has also been repaired. The valuation support for soda ash still exists. In the future, attention will be paid to whether the sustainability of the terminal demand repair path can further form a positive transmission to raw materials.

Forecast for the future market:

1. In the later period, enterprise maintenance and resumption of production will be carried out alternately, and the supply of soda ash will fluctuate;

2. Downstream demand is still weak, and purchasing sentiment is sluggish; in the future, attention should be paid to the operation of the device and the progress of the recovery of downstream demand;

3. The soda ash market may continue the weak consolidation trend, and prices are still under downward pressure.

2.2. Comparison of soda ash market prices

03 Statistics of soda ash process profit this week

3.1. Soda ash process profit situation

As of March 27 this week, the profit of the soda ash process was 211.50 yuan/ton, down 47.6 yuan/ton from last week; the profit of the ammonia soda process was -52.20 yuan/ton, up 0.15 yuan/ton from last week. The cost-end price fluctuated during the week, while the center of gravity of the soda ash price moved slightly downward, with little overall fluctuation and a slight decline in profit.

3.2. Trend of soda ash production profit

04 Maintenance and start-up of soda ash enterprise equipment this week

4.1. List of soda ash enterprise equipment conditions

4.2. Statistics of soda ash enterprise start-up rate during the week
This week, the soda ash industry started about 77.85%, down 4.03% from last week. According to incomplete statistics, the output of soda ash manufacturers this week was about 690,300 tons, up 5.79% from last week.

05 Statistics of soda ash inventory this week

This week, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.63 million tons, and last week it was about 1.6875 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 57,500 tons, a range of -3.41%.

06 Analysis of upstream and downstream products of soda ash

6.1. Comparison of raw salt spot prices this week

This week, the domestic raw salt market was weak and stable. As of Thursday this week, the mainstream ex-factory price of domestic sea salt remained at 260-390 yuan/ton, the mainstream ex-factory price of well salt was 250-340 yuan/ton, and the mainstream ex-factory price of lake salt was 230-250 yuan/ton. The focus of the raw salt market this week was stable. Affected by cross-regional circulation, the actual transaction price of some companies was lower than the manufacturer's quotation. The overall transaction situation was still flat, and the market atmosphere remained the same. The procurement of the two alkali companies was mainly based on replenishment on demand, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment and weak overall trading; as the spring pick-up of sea salt gradually progresses, the market supply may further increase, the contradiction between supply and demand may intensify, and sea salt for soda ash may gradually enter the market at the end of the month. It is expected that in the short term, the raw salt market will continue to be weak. Under the background of oversupply, the price of well salt will still face downward pressure.

6.2. Analysis of float glass market this week
This week, the domestic 5mm float glass market is generally stable, and prices in some regions have risen slightly. Specifically, the demand for replenishment in the middle and lower reaches of North China has increased, driving the price up by 10 yuan/ton; supported by local replenishment in Shahe area, the price of large plates has increased by 24 yuan/ton, and the price of small plates has increased by 20 yuan/ton. The overall production and sales of factories are good, driving the overall reduction of inventory in North China; the market shipments in South China are still good, and the price has increased slightly by 10 yuan/ton; the trading atmosphere in other regions is general, and the price remains stable. Overall, the float glass market is still in a state of supply and demand game this week.

Some production lines in the market have been cold-repaired, but the overall supply is still sufficient, the quotations of production enterprises are basically stable, and some manufacturers make flexible adjustments according to regional demand conditions; the demand side is differentiated, and transactions are mainly based on rigid demand purchases, and the market is in a wait-and-see mood. With some production lines being shut down and the potential recovery in the real estate market expected, the market still needs to pay attention to whether downstream demand can continue to improve in the short term to push prices further up.