Glass Weekly: Float glass prices rise, market demand recovers slowly (2025.2.8 issue)

01 Industry News This Week

"Institutional Forecast: By 2025, the TGV glass substrate market is expected to reach $174.11 million"

According to Global Growth Insights, the market value of through glass VIA (TGV) substrates in 2024 is $129.74 million, and it is expected to reach $174.11 million by 2025 and expand to $1,831.66 million by 2033, with a compound annual growth rate of 34.2% from 2025 to 2033.

In the United States, through glass VIA (TGV) substrate market, the growing demand for high-performance semiconductor packaging, advanced small electronics and 5G communication infrastructure are driving market growth, and the increasing adoption of TGV technology in MEMs, photonics and high-frequency applications is expected to drive significant expansion throughout the forecast period. Through glass VIA (TGV) substrates have gained significant traction in the electronic packaging industry, accounting for 40% of the adoption of advanced interconnect technologies. Their use in microelectronics has grown by 30% over the past five years, with major applications in semiconductors, consumer electronics, automotive electronics, and biomedical devices. Demand for TGV substrates is rising, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, which accounts for 50% of global production capacity. North America and Europe contribute 30% and 20%, respectively, driven by innovations in semiconductor technology and high-performance computing applications.

"Kaili: Glass production is full of enthusiasm"
Walking into the glass production workshop of Guizhou Qianbo Yongtai New Materials Co., Ltd. located in Lubi Economic Development Zone, Qiandongnan Prefecture, the machines are roaring and the workers are closely watching the production line; a robot arm automatically and accurately grabs the freshly baked glass sheets and stacks them neatly; forklifts shuttle back and forth, constantly transferring the produced glass; on the packaging line, robots and workers work closely together... Qianbo Yongtai New Materials Co., Ltd. is full of enthusiasm, glass production does not stop, and strives to achieve a "good start".

"Building the "Barometer" and "Weathervane" of the Global Glass Industry"
From the breakthrough of the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries to the precise empowerment of the emerging industries; from the intelligent collision of the forward-looking layout of future industries to the cultivation of new quality productivity in accordance with local conditions, the national societies cooperate with local organizations to mobilize the scientific and technological workers of the Science and Technology Association to write a vivid answer sheet of "Science and Technology Innovation China" with diversified service scenarios. We have opened a column [Science and Technology Innovation China], using cases as a mirror to explore the way of development; using experience as a torch to illuminate the way forward.

The Chinese Silicate Society uses exhibitions as a medium to link the resources of the entire industrial chain, empower green transformation and technological leap, witness and promote the transformation of the glass industry from "manufacturing" to "smart manufacturing", and go to the new future of industrial development together! With the rapid development of science and technology, the types and functions of glass are also constantly evolving. Float glass, photovoltaic glass, bulletproof glass, wired glass, tempered glass, electrified glass, coated glass... These new types of glass are profoundly affecting our lifestyle without knowing it. You can see all these new types of glass at the China International Glass Industry Technology Exhibition (hereinafter referred to as "China Glass Exhibition").

Since 1986, the China Silicate Society has founded and held 33 consecutive China Glass Exhibitions, which has become a highly influential exhibition, exchange and trade platform in the global glass industry. In accordance with the deployment of the "Science and Technology Innovation China" of the China Association for Science and Technology, the China Silicate Society actively expands industrial chain resources through exhibition services, injects new vitality into the glass industry, and promotes its green and low-carbon transformation and high-quality development. At present, the China Glass Exhibition has become the world's second largest international glass exhibition, becoming an arena for scientific and technological innovation to lead the development of new productivity in the industry, and also a key platform for the China Silicate Society to serve the national strategy and promote the high-quality development of the glass industry and the economy and society.

"Qinhuangdao Honghua 50T/D borosilicate float production line ignition"
On February 5, the 50T/D borosilicate float glass production line of Qinhuangdao Honghua Special Glass Co., Ltd.'s retreat from the city and into the park project (Phase I) held an ignition ceremony, marking that the Funing special glass industry has entered the fast lane.

It is understood that Honghua Special Glass, as the special glass business unit of Yaohua Group, has always been committed to the production and research and development of borosilicate glass. It is the first high-tech enterprise in China to successfully develop a borosilicate float glass production process with completely independent intellectual property rights. The retreat project that was ignited and put into production this time is a key construction project in Hebei Province. It is also an important project for Yaohua Group to promote the "3+1" strategic layout of China National Building Materials Kaisheng Group and accelerate the creation of "Hundred-year Yaohua, Characteristic Yaohua, 10 billion enterprise". It is of great significance to improve the level of the city's special glass industry and help Funing accelerate the creation of a new material strong district.

Next, Funing will take the ignition of the 50T/D borosilicate float glass production line of Qinhuangdao Honghua Special Glass Co., Ltd.'s retreat project (Phase I) as a new starting point, and make every effort to serve and ensure the early start of the second phase, accelerate the creation of a special glass industry cluster, and provide strong support for the new material strong district.

02 Analysis of float glass market
2.1. Analysis of float glass market

This week, the price center of gravity of the domestic 5mm float glass market has moved up significantly, with an adjustment range of -16 to 90 yuan/ton. Specifically, the price in South China has increased significantly, with a price increase of 90 yuan/ton to 1410 yuan/ton. Although some companies have orders, shipments are weak due to logistics factors; the price in East China has increased by 40 yuan/ton to 1490 yuan/ton, mainly in the middle and lower reaches; the southwest and northwest regions have both increased slightly by 10 yuan/ton; the price in Beijing, Tianjin and Tangshan in China has increased by 20 yuan/ton to 1290 yuan/ton. Influenced by market sentiment, the prices of large and small plates in Shahe market have fallen compared with before the holiday. Overall, the float glass market has accumulated inventory significantly after the holiday, and profit recovery is slow; the market has gradually resumed work, and prices have risen in some areas due to price increase promotion strategies, but the recovery of demand is slow, and the overall transaction volume is not good; in the short term, with the acceleration of the downstream resumption of work, market demand is expected to gradually pick up, and some manufacturers still have a strong intention to increase prices, but the current purchasing enthusiasm of the middle and lower reaches is still low, and the float glass price is expected to maintain a regional fluctuation trend.

In terms of futures, glass futures prices continue to be weak and downward after the holiday. On the one hand, the macro sentiment before the holiday weakened as the economic data in January was lower than expected, and the new policy expectations have not yet appeared; on the other hand, the upstream glass inventory accumulated significantly during the holiday, and the midstream inventory driven by speculative demand before the holiday also rebounded. However, after the holiday, the production and sales in the core areas of the spot market were boosted by the stocking of some traditional traders with low inventory, and the spot price had a certain relative resilience, but this also led to the two-way squeeze of the premium arbitrage space on the market, and speculative demand further sluggish. In the short term, the focus of glass is still on the resumption of work of downstream and terminal demand, the digestion of midstream inventory by actual demand, and emotional disturbances such as the policy expectations of the two sessions.

2.2. Comparison of float glass market prices

03 Statistics of float glass production profits this week

3.1. Profits of float glass production 

As of February 6 this week, the profit of petroleum coke as fuel was 178.35 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.45 yuan/ton month-on-month; the profit of natural gas as fuel was -142.30 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.6 yuan/ton month-on-month; the profit of coal as fuel was 89.10 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.7 yuan/ton month-on-month; the profit of glass gradually recovered during the week, the downstream replenishment demand after the holiday was general, and the production and sales in some regions were weak.

3.2. Profit trend of float glass production

04 Dynamics of float glass enterprises and changes in production this week

4.1. Dynamics of float glass enterprises and operation status

This week, the weekly operation rate of float glass is 76.35%, an increase of 0.10% month-on-month. During the holiday, float glass has replacement production lines ignited, and the operation rate has increased slightly compared with last week.

4.2. Weekly output of float glass enterprises
This week, after eliminating zombie production lines, there are a total of 296 domestic glass production lines, of which 226 are in production, and the output of float glass is 1.0935 million tons, a decrease of 0.70% month-on-month. The output during the week has not changed much, and it has decreased by 8,500 tons compared with the previous year.

05 Statistics of float glass inventory this week
This week, the total inventory of float glass manufacturers is 60.1434 million heavy boxes, 43.355 million heavy boxes before the Spring Festival, an increase of 16.7884 million heavy boxes month-on-month, a rate of 52.50%; affected by the Spring Festival holiday, manufacturers in various places have accumulated inventory significantly, and the overall inventory accumulation is obvious.

06 Analysis of upstream and downstream industries of float glass

6.1. Analysis of soda ash market this week
The domestic soda ash market was weak this week, and some prices were lowered. As of Thursday this week, the mainstream price of light soda ash remained at 1,400-1,700 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash was 1,500-1,800 yuan/ton. After the holiday, some companies started production, and the overall start-up was higher than before the holiday; because downstream companies consumed more previous inventory during the Spring Festival, and the logistics and transportation were not smooth during the holiday, the overall inventory of soda ash manufacturers increased significantly; some light alkali downstream production has not yet resumed, and heavy alkali downstream mainly purchases on demand, the overall enthusiasm for taking goods is general, and the market is in a wait-and-see mood. At present, most of the quotations of soda ash manufacturers have not been adjusted, and the market trading atmosphere is weak; the downstream market demand is weak, and the purchasing intention of enterprises is not active. Some enterprises maintain rigid purchases, and the pressure on soda ash enterprises to ship has increased. In addition, the price of some new orders has dropped by about 50-100 yuan/ton, and the market is in a wait-and-see mood.

6.2. Real estate industry statistics
In December 2024, the construction area of ​​houses by real estate developers nationwide reached 72.3309 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 35.09% and a year-on-year increase of 3.04%; the completed housing area reached 255.9129 million square meters, a sharp increase of 315.66% month-on-month, of which the completed area of ​​commercial housing was 185.4365 million square meters. During the same period, the newly started area of ​​real estate was 65.8456 million square meters, and new home sales achieved positive growth. Overall, under the guidance of the goal of "stabilizing the property market", the policy further clarified the direction of "continuously pushing the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize"; the activity of property market transactions increased significantly in December, indicating that signs of stabilization in the real estate market are gradually emerging. The overall market is showing an adjustment trend, helping to build a new model for real estate development. At present, market participants are paying close attention to the implementation effect of policy implementation and its long-term impact on the market, and expect it to inject continuous momentum into the industry.