3.25 Soda Ash Daily Review: Soda Ash Market Remains Weak
Soda ash market analysis
Today, the domestic soda ash market maintained a weak operation. As of now, the price of light soda ash in the southwest region is 1400-1500 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1500-1600 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in central China is 1300-1550 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1450-1600 yuan/ton. The soda ash plant fluctuated slightly, and some enterprises resumed operation, and the supply maintained a slight increase; the downstream demand sentiment was not good, and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. Most of them were purchased on demand, and the support for the market was insufficient. Soda ash enterprises still had pressure to ship.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduoduo data: On March 25, the opening price of the main soda ash contract SA2505 was 1449 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1439 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.49%. The highest intraday price was 1452 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1424 yuan/ton, and the total position was 1068698 lots, up 683 lots month-on-month.
Today, the price of soda ash futures fluctuated and fell, mainly following the trend of downstream varieties. At present, soda ash itself is not driven enough, and there is no new speculation point after the supply disturbance is coming to an end. The inventory pressure in the middle and upper reaches is still difficult to alleviate in the short term. However, with the month-on-month repair and improvement of terminal demand in the peak season, the positive transmission path from the terminal to the raw materials has not been broken. The overall downstream demand scale is in a bottoming out and upward revision state, but the temporary repair rate and slope are not enough to form an obvious repair drive. The short-term fundamentals are still weak, but the repair of the downstream glass market has also improved the glass industry's ability to undertake raw materials. In the short term, we will wait and see whether the improvement of terminal demand and the path of gradual positive transmission to the upstream can continue to be smooth.
Market Forecast
Subsequent soda ash plants will be overhauled and restored at the same time, soda ash supply will fluctuate at a low level; downstream demand is poor, and the soda ash market is insufficiently driven; it is expected that the soda ash market will consolidate in a narrow range in the short term, and it is still necessary to pay attention to the subsequent plant dynamics and changes in the downstream purchasing rhythm.
