The maintenance of the soda ash market continues.

Soda Ash Market Analysis 

The domestic soda ash market remained stable today. In North China, the mainstream price for light soda ash ranged from 1,220 to 1,300 yuan/ton, while that for heavy soda ash was between 1,250 and 1,320 yuan/ton; in East China, light soda ash prices stood at 1,130–1,570 yuan/ton, with the main price for heavy soda ash also ranging from 1,250 to 1,320 yuan/ton. On the supply side, Henan Jinshan No.2 Plant is undergoing maintenance shutdown and is expected to resume operations within ten days; demand remained relatively sluggish as downstream enterprises primarily purchased based on actual needs, resulting in a lackluster trading atmosphere. By month-end, most industry players adopted a wait-and-see approach, awaiting the release of new pricing guidelines.

Soda ash index analysis

According to calculations by Boduo Data: On May 27, the light soda ash price index stood at 1167.14, while the heavy soda ash price index was 1222.86, both unchanged from the previous trading day.

Futures Dynamics

According to data from Bodo Data, the main soda ash contract SA2609 opened at 1,198 yuan per ton on May 27 and closed at 1,202 yuan per ton, recording a daily gain of 0.17%. The price reached an intraday high of 1,210 yuan per ton and a low of 1,197 yuan per ton, with total open interest standing at 1,148,950 lots—a decrease of 5,891 lots month-on-month.

Soda ash futures saw a modest rebound today. Increased maintenance activities at production facilities led to slight inventory drawdowns among manufacturers, providing some price support. However, persistent weak downstream demand coupled with corporate losses has limited purchases to essential needs, leaving high inventory pressure unchanged. The market exhibits clear bullish and bearish dynamics; while prices find support at the bottom in the short term, they lack upward momentum and are likely to remain range-bound at low levels going forward.

Market Outlook Prediction

Currently, the rise in soda ash prices lacks sustained momentum, but supply contraction at the bottom level provides support. In the short term, prices are likely to remain range-bound. Close attention should be paid to the progress of subsequent plant maintenance and marginal changes in downstream procurement demand.