Glass Monthly: Glass prices remain stable, supply and demand game pushes up moderately (202504 issue)

01. Analysis of float glass market

1.1. Analysis of float glass market this month:

In April, the overall 5mm float glass market in my country remained stable, with some local trials slightly increasing, and the price fluctuation range was between -30 and 40 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, the float glass market showed a mild upward trend. Driven by the regional market sentiment and the promotion policies of manufacturers, the willingness of mid- and downstream purchases increased. Driven by the periodic replenishment demand, the shipment rhythm of some manufacturers accelerated, leading to a slight decline in the overall inventory level of the industry. In the middle and late part of the month, the overall float glass market showed a stable and slightly increasing trend. Most manufacturers maintained stable prices. Only a few manufacturers with greater inventory pressure made small concessions for promotion. The supply side was affected by the water storage of production lines in some areas and the conversion to color glass. The output of white glass shrank, leading to price increases in some areas. By the end of the month, the domestic soda ash market showed a stable operation trend. Some manufacturers focused on reducing inventory before the holiday, and prices were slightly loosened. Some regions saw tentative price increases. The overall industry operating rate remained stable. Some companies had load adjustments. The demand side performed steadily. Downstream users maintained a purchasing strategy on demand, and still took low-priced sources as the main purchasing target.

In terms of futures, the overall glass futures price continued to decline during the month. At the beginning of the month, the price was relatively strong due to the support of seasonal demand repair. However, with the impact of the overseas black swan event after the Qingming Festival, the overall commodity market sentiment was frustrated, and demand repair also slowed down. In addition, the delivery warehouse expansion problem caused the futures price to fall sharply, and the midstream shipments squeezed the upstream orders. The upstream production and sales in the core areas continued to decline, and the futures market continued to fall. The near-month contract was greatly discounted due to the suppression of warehouse receipts. After the main force moved to the far month, the premium was also greatly suppressed due to weak expectations. The overall glass market fundamentals were difficult to drive significant improvement, and policy guidance was not enough to repair the macro sentiment. The market continued to operate weakly.

Market forecast for May:

1. There will still be production line cold repair and ignition plans in the future, and the output will fluctuate within a narrow range;

2. Holidays are coming, and most processing plants are storing holiday expectations, and the purchase of raw materials remains rigid;

3. The contradiction between supply and demand still exists, and the float glass market is expected to fluctuate.

1.2. Comparison of float glass market prices this month

1.3. Price trend of float glass market

02 Summary of float glass enterprise equipment maintenance this month

03. Profit of float glass production this month

3.1. Comparison of monthly profits of float glass

According to Boduoduo data, in April 2025, the average profit of petroleum coke as fuel is -2.94 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.31 yuan/ton month-on-month; the average profit of natural gas as fuel is -169.97 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.53 yuan/ton month-on-month; the average profit of coal as fuel is 123.10 yuan/ton, an increase of 53.51 yuan/ton month-on-month.

3.2. This month's float glass production profit trend chart

04. Glass import and export in March

4.1. Analysis of glass import volume in March

According to customs data, the glass import volume in March 2025 was 19,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12% and a month-on-month increase of 44%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative import volume was 45,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 24,900 tons, a decrease of -35.68%. By country, the top three regions for glass imports in March were: Malaysia 5,300 tons, Japan 4,200 tons, and Taiwan, China 3,300 tons, accounting for 29%, 23%, and 18% respectively.

4.2. Analysis of glass export volume in February

According to customs data, according to customs data, the glass export volume in March 2025 was 79,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 110% and a month-on-month increase of 42%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative export volume was 199,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 101,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 102.75%. By country, the top three regions for glass exports in March were Peru (7,500 tons), South Korea (4,700 tons), and Poland (4,600 tons), accounting for 25%, 15%, and 15%, respectively.

05. Analysis of glass production and operating rate in March

5.1. Analysis of glass production in March

In March 2025, China's glass production was 4.8975 million tons, an increase of 10.58% year-on-year to 5.4270 million tons, and an increase of 12.14% from 4.3675 million tons month-on-month; China's float glass production from January to March 2025 totaled 13.6865 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1009 million tons, a decrease of -13.31%.

5.2. Statistics on the operating rate of glass enterprises in March

In March 2025, the operating rate of the glass market was 78.78%, a year-on-year decrease of 8.45% and a month-on-month increase of 3.10%. This month, some devices resumed production and ignited, and the industry's operation rebounded slightly.

06. Inventory of float glass enterprises

07 Analysis of upstream and downstream products of float glass

7.1. Comparison of spot prices of soda ash

In April, the domestic soda ash market as a whole showed a trend of first decline and then rise, and the price fluctuation was limited. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of light soda ash is 1050-1650 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is maintained at 1050-1680 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, the soda ash market showed a weak operation trend, and the price fell narrowly. The equipment of major production enterprises maintained stable operation, and the industry operating rate remained at a high level. Downstream users mainly purchased on demand. Only some enterprises appropriately replenished their inventory when the price was low, and the overall willingness to stock up was not strong. Entering the middle of the month, the center of gravity of soda ash prices fell, and the contradiction between supply and demand remained prominent. The overall operating rate of the industry continued to be high, the market supply was sufficient, and the inventory pressure of production enterprises gradually emerged. The demand side was constrained by the fact that the recovery of the terminal industry was lower than expected, and the purchasing enthusiasm was generally not high. Small orders were mainly replenished, and large orders were less traded. By the end of the month, the soda ash market price stopped falling, some manufacturers raised their prices, the soda ash maintenance is expected to increase, the market supply is expected to gradually shrink, the downstream purchasing demand remains relatively stable, and the regular inventory replenishment cycle at the end of the month is coming. The market trading atmosphere has improved to a certain extent, and the orders to be issued have increased.

7.2, Real estate industry data statistics

In January-March 2025, the housing construction area of ​​real estate development companies was 6137.05 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%. Among them, the residential construction area was 4272.37 million square meters, a decrease of 9.9%. The newly started housing area was 129.96 million square meters, a decrease of 24.4%. Among them, the newly started residential area was 94.92 million square meters, a decrease of 23.9%. The completed housing area was 130.60 million square meters, a decrease of 14.3%. Among them, the completed residential area was 95.02 million square meters, a decrease of 14.7%. From January to March, the sales area of ​​newly built commercial housing was 218.69 million square meters, down 3.0% year-on-year, and the decline narrowed by 2.1 percentage points compared with January to February; among them, the sales area of ​​residential housing decreased by 2.0%. The sales of newly built commercial housing amounted to 2079.8 billion yuan, down 2.1%, and the decline narrowed by 0.5 percentage points; among them, the sales of residential housing decreased by 0.4%.

In the first quarter, the situation of my country's real estate market improved significantly, and the policy effect of promoting the stabilization of real estate continued to emerge. Data showed that the sales area of ​​commercial housing in March increased month-on-month driven by the recovery of the core cities, and the number of cities with month-on-month increases in new and second-hand housing prices increased, and the recovery in sales led to marginal improvement in the cash flow of real estate companies' operations.

Source | Boduoduo Data Group