4.28 Soda Ash Daily Review: Soda Ash Market Remains Stable, Local Prices Adjusted in a Narrow Range

Soda ash market analysis

Today, the domestic soda ash market maintained a stable and weak operation, and the price of individual markets was adjusted narrowly, with a range of 10 yuan/ton. As of now, the price of light soda ash in East China is 1320-1500 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1420-1500 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Central China is 1260-1390 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1300-1450 yuan/ton. At present, the production and operation of the soda ash industry are stable, and most manufacturers maintain normal load operation. The operating load of Tianjin Soda Plant has increased to about 60%, and the overall operating rate of the industry has remained at a high level of 90%. The demand side is relatively mild, and the procurement strategy of downstream enterprises is still dominated by rigid demand. The cautious operation of low-price replenishment continues, and the overall trading rhythm of the market remains stable.

Futures dynamics

According to Boduoduo data: On April 28, the opening price of the main soda ash contract SA2509 was 1,355 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1,364 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.37%. The highest intraday price was 1,392 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,355 yuan/ton, and the total position was 1,036,776 lots, an increase of 22,139 lots month-on-month.

Today, the soda ash futures price rose and fell. The replenishment of the middle and lower reaches slowed down in the early stage, and the support on the demand side weakened. Overall, the supply disturbance still has some support for the market valuation, but the main logic of the fundamental surplus of soda ash itself has not been broken, and the inventory of the entire industry is still at a relatively high level. The market still has concerns about the confidence of the upward game. In the future, we will pay attention to whether the actual maintenance losses can form a phased mismatch market. Before that, it will be driven by shocks.

Market Forecast

In the short term, in May, as the industry maintenance plan is gradually implemented, the supply of soda ash is expected to tighten, and the demand remains relatively stable. Recently, low-price transactions have increased, and the number of orders to be shipped by major manufacturers has gradually increased. Against the background of improved supply and demand, the market price of soda ash is expected to show a stable upward trend, but considering the current inventory level and downstream acceptance, the increase may be relatively mild.

Data source: Boduoduo Data Group