Soda Ash Monthly: Supply and demand game shows weakness, inspection and repair of inventory promotes recovery (202504 issue)

01. Analysis of the soda ash market

1.1. Analysis of the soda ash market this month:

In April, the domestic soda ash market as a whole showed a trend of first decline and then rise, and the price fluctuation was limited. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of light soda ash is 1050-1650 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is maintained at 1050-1680 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, the soda ash market showed a weak operation trend, and the price fell narrowly. The equipment of major production enterprises maintained stable operation, and the industry operating rate remained at a high level. Downstream users mainly purchased on demand. Only some enterprises appropriately replenished their inventory when the price was low, and the overall willingness to stock up was not strong. Entering the middle of the month, the center of gravity of soda ash prices fell, and the contradiction between supply and demand remained prominent. The overall operating rate of the industry continued to be high, the market supply was sufficient, and the inventory pressure of production enterprises gradually emerged. The demand side was constrained by the fact that the recovery of the terminal industry was lower than expected, and the purchasing enthusiasm was generally not high. Small orders were mainly replenished, and large orders were less traded. By the end of the month, the soda ash market price stopped falling, some manufacturers raised their prices, and the expectation of soda ash overhaul increased. The market supply is expected to gradually shrink, and the downstream purchasing demand remains relatively stable. Coupled with the arrival of the regular inventory replenishment cycle at the end of the month, the market trading atmosphere has improved to a certain extent, and the number of pending orders has increased.

In terms of futures, the soda ash price in the month mainly bottomed out and rebounded. At the beginning of the month, it continued to weaken due to the suppression of fundamentals and the frustration of macroeconomic sentiment caused by the US reciprocal tariff issue. It was not until the middle and late part of the month that the price hit a new low and the market began to spread news of a large number of new overhaul plans in May. As a result, futures prices showed signs of stopping the decline and rebounding, and there were more and more market rumors about the subsequent overhaul issues. The upstream has a strong willingness to jointly support the price, and under the premise of relatively low valuations, the supply disturbance has a strong emotional support for futures prices before it is falsified. However, whether the supply and demand relationship can be truly improved in the future still needs to be considered. In the short term, the market is mainly arguing around the supply disturbance issue.

Market forecast for May 2025:

1. Many manufacturers have announced maintenance plans, and the overall operating rate of the industry is expected to decline significantly;

2. Demand is relatively stable, low-priced supply transactions are gradually increasing, and the expectation of alkali plants to be shipped may increase;

3. Against the background of marginal improvement in the supply and demand pattern, the market bullish sentiment may increase.

1.2. Comparison of soda ash market prices this month

1.3. Soda ash market price trend

According to Boduoduo data, as of April 29, the domestic light alkali price index was 1332.86, down 45.71 from the beginning of the month, a decrease of -3.32%; the heavy alkali price index was 1380, down 77.14 from the beginning of the month, a decrease of -5.29%. Market sentiment was weak during the month, and the soda ash price index declined.

02. Summary of the maintenance of soda ash enterprises this month

03. Soda ash imports and exports, production and operating rate in March

3.1. Analysis of soda ash imports in March

According to customs data, China imported 3,200 tons of soda ash in March 2025, down 98.52% year-on-year and 41.71% month-on-month; from January to March 2025, the cumulative import of soda ash was about 9,900 tons, down 98.15% year-on-year, and the import volume decreased by about 524,800 tons. The countries importing soda ash in March were: UAE and Japan, accounting for 94% and 6% of the total import volume respectively.

3.2. Analysis of soda ash exports in March

In March 2025, China exported 194,300 tons of soda ash, up 94.59% year-on-year and 28.34% month-on-month; from January to March 2025, the cumulative export of soda ash was 483,300 tons, up 121.76% year-on-year, and the export volume increased by about 265,400 tons. Among them, the top three countries in terms of soda ash export volume in March were: Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand; accounting for 21%, 19%, and 11% of the total export volume respectively.

3.3 Analysis of soda ash production in March

According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, the domestic soda ash production in March 2025 was 3.48 million tons, an increase of 7.77% year-on-year and 12.94% month-on-month; the domestic soda ash production in January-March 2025 was 9.793 million tons, an increase of 4.14% year-on-year from 9.404 million tons in the same period last year, and the output increased by about 389,000 tons.

3.4 Statistics on the operating rate of soda ash enterprises

In March 2025, the operating load of soda ash enterprises was about 81.19%, a decrease of 8.05% month-on-month. Due to the maintenance of market enterprises and the reduction of operation, the overall operation decreased slightly, but it was still at a high level.

04. Analysis of apparent consumption of soda ash

In March 2025, the apparent consumption of domestic soda ash was 3.2889 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.67% and a month-on-month increase of 12.04%. The cumulative apparent consumption from January to March was 9.3197 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 401,200 tons, a decrease of -4.13% compared with the same period last year.

05. Inventory of soda ash enterprises

06. Analysis of upstream and downstream products of soda ash

6.1. Analysis of raw salt market prices

In April, the overall trend of the domestic raw salt market was weak. Up to now, the mainstream ex-factory price of domestic sea salt has remained at 220-390 yuan/ton, the mainstream ex-factory price of well salt is 240-300 yuan/ton, and the mainstream ex-factory price of lake salt is 210-230 yuan/ton. Specifically, the price of well salt has dropped significantly. The price of well salt in North China, East China, Central China and Southwest China generally dropped by 5-20 yuan/ton, with a drop of 1%-8%. Among them, the Central China region had the largest drop, down 7.02% month-on-month. The overall performance of the sea salt market is relatively stable. Only the price in North China dropped by 20 yuan/ton, and the prices in other regions remained stable. There was no significant fluctuation in the price of lake salt in the northwest. Overall, as the maintenance of the equipment gradually resumed, the output showed an increasing trend, and the impact of the reduction of individual enterprises was limited; the demand side performed generally, mainly for rigid demand to replenish inventory, and the overall consumption was stable with an increase.

6.2. Spot price trend of float glass

In April, the overall 5mm float glass market in my country remained stable, with a small increase in some areas, and the price fluctuation range was -30 to 40 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, the float glass market showed a mild upward trend. Driven by the regional market sentiment and the promotion policies of manufacturers, the willingness of mid- and downstream purchases increased. Driven by the periodic replenishment demand, the shipment rhythm of some manufacturers accelerated, leading to a slight decline in the overall inventory level of the industry. In the middle and late part of the month, the overall float glass market showed a stable and slightly upward trend. Most manufacturers maintained stable prices. Only a few manufacturers with heavy inventory pressure made small concessions for promotion. The supply side was affected by the water storage of production lines in some areas and the conversion of color glass. The output of white glass shrank, leading to price increases in some regions. By the end of the month, the domestic soda ash market showed a stable operation trend as a whole. Some manufacturers focused on reducing inventory before the holiday, and prices were slightly loosened. Some regions showed tentative price increases. The overall operating rate of the industry remained stable. Some companies had load adjustments. The demand side performed steadily. Downstream users maintained an on-demand procurement strategy and still took low-priced sources as the main procurement target.

Source | Boduoduo Data Group