Glass Weekly (20250508): Float glass fluctuates weakly

01 Industry News This Week

《Military Stocks Soar, Driving the Development of Aircraft and Automotive Glass Industry》
The strong performance of the military sector has a significant driving effect on the aviation, automotive and glass industry chains, which is specifically reflected in the following three aspects:

Ⅰ. Accelerating the localization of the large aircraft industry chain

1. C919 overseas expansion accelerates: The domestic large aircraft C919 was recently delivered to Laos for its first commercial flight, and received cooperation intentions from Vietnam, which promoted the increase of international market share. It is estimated that in the next 20 years, the domestic market will add more than 9,000 new aircraft, with a value of more than 10 trillion yuan, and the demand for aviation equipment manufacturing will surge.

2. Upgrade of supporting materials and components: Aviation glass, as the core material of aircraft windshields and cockpits, benefits from the trend of independent control of the large aircraft industry chain. The policy clearly defines a 70 billion yuan investment plan, focusing on increasing the localization rate of airborne systems, engines and other links, driving the demand for high-end glass substrates.

Ⅱ. Military-civilian integration activates the automobile industry
1. Technology spillover of military-industrial group automobile enterprises: Changan Automobile, Jiangling Motors and other enterprises under China North Industries Group Corporation have promoted breakthroughs in intelligent driving and lightweight technology of new energy vehicles through the transformation of military technology, forming a "military technology and civilian" synergy effect.

2. Expansion of demand for special vehicles: Technological iterations in the fields of ground weapons and unmanned equipment have spawned automotive glass market segments such as bulletproof glass and high-strength windows. The growth in special vehicle orders of enterprises such as Northern Changlong and Inner Mongolia First Machine indirectly drives the development of supporting glass suppliers.

Ⅲ. Low-altitude economy gives birth to new glass scenes
1. Policies for general aviation equipment are favorable: The "Implementation Plan for Innovation and Application of General Aviation Equipment (2024-2030)" proposes to create a trillion-level market, and the demand for lightweight and high-strength glass for new aircraft such as drones and eVTOL has increased significantly.

2. Satellite Internet supporting upgrades: In the aerospace equipment industry chain, components such as satellite fairings and optical payloads rely on special glass materials. Technological breakthroughs by companies under the Aerospace Science and Technology Group have helped the glass industry upgrade to aerospace-grade high-temperature resistance and radiation resistance.

The current valuation of the military industry is at the 8.22% percentile in the past 10 years. Combined with the catalysis of the geopolitical situation, the transmission effect of the industrial chain will continue to be released.

《The glass industry has seen a double-edged sword》
The current glass industry presents a "double-edged sword" pattern, with float glass price increases, deep processing price cuts, and cost increases coexisting, mainly affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand structure, industrial chain transmission, and policy regulation. The following is a specific analysis:

Ⅰ. Reasons for the price increase of float glass

1. Inventory decline and demand recovery In April 2025, the inventory of float glass companies nationwide fell by 0.19% month-on-month. Some companies stimulated shipments through a small price increase, and downstream replenishment led to an increase in production and sales rates. Short-term supply and demand improvements supported price rebounds.

2.‌Real estate policy is expected to improve‌Although the area of ​​completed real estate projects fell by 14.3% year-on-year, the policy side's continued support for "guaranteed delivery of buildings" and the traders' advance stockpiling behavior have promoted the staged recovery of float glass prices.

3.‌Cost pressure transmission‌Price fluctuations of raw materials (such as soda ash) and the increase in environmental protection policies have led to an increase in the production cost of float glass, and companies have relieved the pressure by raising prices.

Ⅱ. Price reduction and dilemma of deep-processed glass

1.‌Cost and selling price inversion‌The price of float glass raw materials has risen disorderly, and the cost of raw materials for deep-processing companies has increased by more than 100 yuan per ton, but the terminal sales price has not been raised synchronously due to fierce market competition, and the profit margin has been severely compressed. For example, the price of engineering glass has dropped from 300 yuan/㎡ to 100 yuan/㎡.

2.‌Vicious competition in the industry‌The deep-processing industry has long been plagued by the phenomenon of "low-price bidding" and "prepayment production". Combined with shrinking orders, companies are forced to cut prices to maintain cash flow, forming a price "dam lake".

3. Weak demand side The sluggish real estate demand is transmitted to downstream areas such as curtain walls and home furnishings, and the number of deep processing orders has dropped sharply, further exacerbating the survival pressure of enterprises.

III. Driving factors of rising costs

1. Raw material price fluctuations The raw materials such as soda ash required for float glass production are affected by the growth in demand for photovoltaic glass, and the periodic supply shortage has pushed up costs.

2. Overcapacity and structural contradictions Although the daily melting volume of float glass remains at a high level of 173,000 tons, the demand side has recovered slowly, and companies are forced to digest inventory through price competition, further eroding profits.

3. Policy and environmental pressure Under the "dual carbon" strategy, the energy-saving glass promotion policy is beneficial to long-term development, but in the short term, environmental protection transformation investment will increase corporate operating costs.

IV. Industry contradictions and future challenges Imbalance in industrial chain transmission: Float glass companies have a strong ability to hedge risks through futures tools, while deep processing companies have become the main bearers of industrial chain risks due to their weak bargaining power and tight capital chain. ‌

Long-term demand concerns‌: The downward cycle of the real estate industry may continue, and the glass industry still needs time to adjust its production capacity. The industry's "cold winter" may continue for a long time.

In summary, the differentiation pattern of the glass industry is unlikely to improve fundamentally in the short term, and companies need to respond to challenges through capacity optimization, technological innovation and the application of risk management tools (such as futures hedging).

02 Float glass market analysis

2.1. Float glass market analysis

This week, the domestic 5mm float glass market as a whole maintained a narrow range of fluctuations. This week, the North China glass market continued to operate weakly, the overall transaction atmosphere was light, and prices showed a general decline. Among them, the prices in Shahe market generally dropped by 1-3 yuan/weight box. Although terminal demand has recovered after the holiday, the overall recovery is limited, and downstream companies' purchases are still mainly based on just-in-time replenishment. The East China market showed a stable but weak operation trend. During the holidays, some manufacturers slightly loosened their prices to promote shipments. However, due to the limited logistics during holidays and the reduction of purchasing activities, the overall production and sales rate remained at a low level. Although the market gradually returned to normal after the holidays and the pace of purchasing accelerated, the overall shipments have not reached the ideal level due to the limited increase in downstream orders. The market still faces certain pressure. The Southwest market is stable with a slight increase. Most manufacturers have raised their quotations by 1 yuan/weight box. Some factories in Yunnan have raised their quotations by 2 yuan/weight box. The overall transaction atmosphere is relatively flat.

This week, the overall performance of the domestic float glass market was lower than expected. Although some regional companies intend to raise prices, they encounter resistance in actual implementation. From the perspective of market operation, it shows an obvious "more declines and less increases" feature. Only some companies can maintain stable prices.

In terms of futures, the price of glass futures continued to decline during the week. The current glass market is suppressed by the weak expectation of continued weakening demand scale, and due to the lack of flexibility on the supply side, the annual production line is expected to grow steadily, and it is difficult to give an upward drive. The market is rapidly declining, mainly due to midstream shipments, so the manufacturers' inventory accumulation speed has accelerated, and the quotations have been lowered simultaneously. However, with the continuous decline in spot prices and the continuous release of midstream inventories, if the actual demand in the downstream can be restored in stages or the spot price reduction stimulates the willingness of the midstream and downstream to take goods, resulting in a rebound in production and sales, it may slow down the accumulation speed of the upstream and temporarily stabilize the market sentiment. But before that, the market is temporarily optimistic and weak, waiting for opportunities.

2.2. Comparison of float glass market prices

03 Dynamics of float glass enterprise installations this week

04 Statistics of float glass inventory this week

This week, the total inventory of float glass manufacturers is 58.17 million tons, and 56.26 million tons last week, an increase of 191 tons from the previous month, an increase of 3.39%; the market transaction rhythm slowed down during the May Day holiday, and the efficiency of manufacturers' shipments was affected. Although it gradually recovered after the holiday, the overall transaction recovery was limited.

05 Analysis of upstream and downstream industries of float glass

5.1. Analysis of soda ash market this week

This week, the domestic soda ash market showed a trend of rising first and then falling, and gradually stabilizing. As of Thursday this week, the price of light soda ash was 1050-1670 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash was 1050-1700 yuan/ton. In the early stage of the market, stimulated by the news of maintenance of some devices and the concentrated replenishment of downstream stocks before the holiday, the price saw a significant rise. However, as the expectation of maintenance was gradually digested by the market, coupled with the weakening demand for replenishment after the holiday, the market trading atmosphere cooled down, and prices fell accordingly. At present, the market has entered a consolidation stage, the price fluctuation range has narrowed significantly, and the overall trend has stabilized. The subsequent market trend still needs to pay attention to the actual supply and demand changes, especially the implementation of the new maintenance plan and the sustainability of downstream procurement efforts.

5.2. real estate industry data statistics
In January-March 2025, the construction area of ​​houses of real estate development enterprises was 613.705 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%. Among them, the construction area of ​​residential buildings was 427.237 million square meters, a decrease of 9.9%. The newly started area of ​​houses was 129.96 million square meters, a decrease of 24.4%. Among them, the newly started residential area was 94.92 million square meters, down 23.9%. The completed housing area was 130.60 million square meters, down 14.3%. Among them, the completed residential area was 95.02 million square meters, down 14.7%. From January to March, the sales area of ​​new commercial housing was 218.69 million square meters, down 3.0% year-on-year, and the decline narrowed by 2.1 percentage points compared with January to February; among them, the residential sales area fell by 2.0%. The sales of new commercial housing was 2079.8 billion yuan, down 2.1%, and the decline narrowed by 0.5 percentage points; among them, the residential sales fell by 0.4%.

In the first quarter, the situation of my country's real estate market improved significantly, and the policy effect of promoting the stabilization of real estate continued to emerge. Data show that the sales area of ​​commercial housing in March increased month-on-month driven by the recovery of the core cities, and the number of cities with month-on-month increases in new and second-hand housing prices increased, and the recovery in sales led to marginal improvements in the cash flow of real estate companies.

Source | Boduoduo Data Group