4.30 Soda Ash Daily Review: Maintenance news boosts limited demand, soda ash market dominated by rigid demand

Soda ash market analysis

Today, the domestic soda ash market is stable and rising, and the price in some markets has increased by 20-60 yuan/ton. As of now, the price of light soda ash in South China is 1580-1670 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1530-1700 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Central China is 1280-1390 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1300-1450 yuan/ton. Jiangsu Jingshen Chemical Equipment has reduced its capacity for maintenance, and Tianjin Alkali Industry and Southern Alkali Industry have increased their load. The overall operating load of the industry is still at a high level of about 90%. At present, downstream purchases are still dominated by small orders for rigid demand, and the stocking sentiment is relatively cautious. With the increase in maintenance plans in May, the market trading atmosphere has improved to a certain extent, but the actual purchase volume has not yet been significantly increased, and some low-priced sources have been sold smoothly.

Futures dynamics

According to Boduoduo data: On April 30, the opening price of the main soda ash contract SA2509 was 1,375 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 1,352 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.39%. The highest intraday price was 1,377 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,335 yuan/ton, and the total position was 933,764 lots, down 84,333 lots from the previous month.

Today, the soda ash futures price fluctuated and fell mainly. The main reason may be that there was an institutional demand for liquidation in the market before the holiday. The intraday fluctuations were large, and the near-month contract was facing forced exit in the delivery month. The long pressure was large. In addition, the negative news that Lianyungang's new production capacity was about to be produced came out, and the overall market was mainly weak. However, after the holiday, the problem of joint maintenance of alkali plants continued. At present, before the maintenance disturbance can be completely falsified, the market sentiment support still exists. It is not appropriate to be overly bearish in the short term. It is temporarily waiting to see whether the maintenance landing situation and the actual loss amount can cause a phased mismatch problem.

Market Forecast

Affected by the maintenance plan, the operating rate and output of the soda ash industry are expected to decline in stages, the market supply side is shrinking, and the price center of gravity is expected to gradually move up, but the actual increase still needs to observe the implementation of the maintenance. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the dynamics of major production facilities and inventory changes.

Data source: Boduoduo Data Group