4.25 Soda Ash Daily Review: The soda ash market is stable and upward, and the supply-demand gap is expected to be repaired and supported

Soda ash market analysis

Today, the domestic soda ash market is stable and rising, with an increase of 5-30 yuan/ton. As of now, the price of light soda ash in East China is 1300-1500 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1420-1500 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Central China is 1250-1390 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1300-1450 yuan/ton. Today's market trading atmosphere is mild, and the wait-and-see sentiment is strong. The supply side is stable and small, and it still maintains a high-level operation trend. Although some companies' maintenance has provided certain support to the market, the overall supply pressure has not been significantly alleviated; in terms of cost, the price of coal and raw salt has weakened slightly, which has alleviated the pressure on the production cost of soda ash, but the cost support is relatively limited; the demand side continues to be weak and stable, and downstream companies maintain a low inventory strategy and only purchase low-priced sources on demand.

Futures dynamics

According to Boduoduo data: On April 25, the opening price of the main soda ash contract SA2509 was 1,376 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 1,365 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.29%. The highest price was 1,380 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,357 yuan/ton, and the total position was 1,014,637 lots, an increase of 12,551 lots month-on-month.

Today, the soda ash futures price fell slightly, mainly following the market's sentiment decline on the lack of policy guidance after the important meeting. However, given the expectation of its own supply disturbance, coupled with the rumors of some alkali plants closing orders during the market, the decline was relatively limited. Overall, the supply disturbance has a certain repair on the market valuation, but the main logic of the excess fundamentals of soda ash itself has not been broken, and the inventory of the entire industry is still at a relatively high level. The market still has concerns about the confidence of the upward game. In the future, attention will be paid to whether the actual maintenance losses can form a phased mismatch market. Before that, it will be driven by shocks and waiting.

Market Forecast

In the short term, the soda ash market is expected to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations. The stocking expectations before the May Day holiday have boosted market sentiment to a certain extent, which may support prices in the short term. As May begins, some companies plan to overhaul their equipment, and the industry's operating rate is expected to decline to a certain extent. The supply is facing contraction pressure. In the future, we need to focus on the impact of the actual overhaul execution on the supply side.